49ers @ Jags
This game features two teams that are streaking - but in opposite directions.
The Jags are happy and feeling confident in the midst of their five-game win streak. Conversely, for Kyle Shanahan’s bunch, well, the feeling is not mutual during their three-game skid.
The good news, however, for San Francisco, is that it appears they will be receiving reinforcements for this game. WR Deebo Samuel and OL Trent Williams are expected to return.
Those are two crucial pieces in this 49ers offense.
Plus, let’s not forget that San Francisco acquired DE Chase Young, to pair alongside Joey Bosa.
Furthermore, this is an odd scheduling spot for the Jaguars. Now, granted, they’ve had their quirky scheduling already this season and conquered it, having back-to-back overseas games, with no break afterwards and then playing a Thursday Night matchup on the road. But, coming into this Sunday, they will have played just two games in a span of 23 days.
This plays into the narrative of rest vs rust.
I know what you’re thinking and, yes, I realize the 49ers are coming off a bye week themselves, but their situation is different.
Not only was their break not as long, but it was a much needed one. No better way to end a losing streak than to pause play, get some of your top guys healthy and a chance to reset your mentality for the rest of the season.
For the Jags; when you're in the midst of a winning streak the last thing you want to have happen is for the momentum to come to a halt. And, unfortunately for them - that’s what their long layoff provided.
Aside from the scheduling aspect of this game, let’s take a look at some stats.
In terms of quarterback play, Brock Purdy ranks 1st in EPA/Play and success rate, whereas Trevor Lawrence comes in at 14th and 7th respectively.
As a whole, San Francisco’s offense is second in both EPA/Play and success rate. Jacksonville stacks up at 21st in EPA/Play and 11th in success rate.
Both defenses are respectable and can produce big plays, but considering the sizable offensive advantage that points toward the road team, I believe that to make the ultimate difference in this spot.
The 49ers will come out of their bye week ready to right their ship and cover this number down in Duval.
Play: 49ers -3; Risk 1.10 units to win 1.00
Pending:
Bears ML / Bills ML (-108)
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