Jacksonville State @ New Mexico State
I haven’t really ventured outside of the major conferences with any of my bets this season, but let’s go ahead and do that for this matchup in the C-USA.
Let’s begin with acknowledging the line movement. New Mexico state opened as a four-point favorite for this spot. Now, though, the line has flipped to Jacksonville State laying as high as three.
Why is there so much love coming in for the Gamecocks?
Aside from them being just a solid team overall, this is a good spot situationally for them. They are technically not able to play in the league title game or be bowl eligible this season due to an NCAA policy that prohibits teams transitioning up, or down, from postseason play. Although, the exception to the rule for the bowl game is that if there are not enough bowl-eligible teams, then the Gamecocks would get a chance to play in a bowl game.
Nevertheless, the point is that this matchup is essentially Jacksonville State’s bowl game. It’s realistically their final game of the season and there’s no better way to go out then with a dub.
Also, their opponent is probably coming into this spot content and complacent. Not only did the Aggies just accomplish a big win on the road at Auburn last weekend (31-10), but they have already solidified their spot with a bowl bid, as well as in the C-USA Championship game against Liberty. So even if NMS loses, they will still be locked into both of those postseason matchups.
This doesn’t mean they are going to give up in this spot, but surely they have their sights set on bigger games down the road that they want to stay healthy and prepared for.
So it makes sense why the betting market has altered to being in favor of the Gamecocks; and I will be siding with that movement, too.
Play: Jacksonville State Moneyline (-140); risk 1.40 units to win 1.00
CFB Record: 7-4 (+2.41)
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