Clemson @ Virginia Tech
Both of these teams have lost their last two games. Clemson fell victim at Miami (85-82) and then proceeded to lose at home to UNC (65-55). Virginia Tech lost at Wake Forest (86-63) and then at Florida State (77-74).
Which team will finally get back in the winning column? I’m thinking it’s going to be the Tigers.
Clemson comes into this spot ranking 14th in adjusted offensive efficiency, whereas the Hokies rank 111th according to Barttorvik. The Tigers also come in at 24th in effective field goal percentage (55.8%) and Virginia Tech is 102nd (52.2%).
Clemson also has the slight edge defensively, in rebounding and in terms of limiting turnovers. However, where the Hokies may thrive is on the charity stripe. They are the more efficient team in terms of success at the free throw line on both sides of the ball.
But what this matchup comes down to is the success on the offensive side of the ball. I already listed a couple metrics that show the Tigers as the better team in that regard, but let’s expand even a tad further.
Clemson is shooting 55.8% on two-point shots and 37.2% from beyond the arc. Virginia Tech is shooting 52.5% inside the perimeter and 34.5% from outside of it. Not the biggest discrepancy, per se, but enough to warrant having more confidence in the road team tonight.
The Tigers are the better team in this matchup and I believe we will see that come to fruition. If they hadn’t lost their last two games I think we’d see them as a bigger favorite than they currently are. Let’s hope they bounce back.
Play: Clemson Moneyline (-130); risk 1.30 units to win 1.00
Boston College @ Syracuse
Let’s take a gander at another ACC matchup as we get to see a pair of 10-4 teams square off in Syracuse.
The Orange are laying as much as four-and-a-half in this spot, but that seems a tad too rich.
Boston College comes into tonight ranking 34th in adjusted offensive efficiency and 57th in effective field goal percentage (53.6%). Syracuse ranks 144th and 196th in those categories, respectively.
Where the Eagles also have a clear advantage is within the turnover battle. For any road team traveling to a tough environment it is imperative that they limit harm to themselves. We should expect Boston College to do just that - like they have been all season by ranking 8th in turnover percentage. Their opponent stacks up at 179th in that regard.
What also can crush a home favorite is their inability to limit their opponents three point damage. Well, the Eagles are connecting on about 37% of their shots from beyond the arc, whereas the Orange are doing so at a clip of 31%. Neither team is particularly good at defending shots from deep, but the offensive edge clearly goes to the underdog.
And that’s what makes this matchup intriguing - where the line is set at for the underdog. If this was anything at three or lower, in favor of Syracuse, I’d stay away. But the fact that we’re getting four-and-a-half points is just too tempting to pass up.
Play: Boston College (+4.5); risk 1.15 units to win 1.00
College Basketball Record: 1-0 (+1.00)
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