*This article was originally written on December 5th. So, some lines and prices have probably altered since that point.*
We have finally made it to bowl season, ladies and gentleman! This is a very exciting, yet challenging time of the year as a handicapper. We get so excited for all of the games and unique matchups, but also realize the difficulties within these meetings due to numerous key players entering the transfer portal and the unfamiliarity between the opponents that are squaring off.
With that being said, there are several spots that I do very much favor thus far. Some of the lines have moved, but I’ll let you know what I would play the bet to. And, as always, if I add any more, I’ll be sure to post it here.
Let’s dive in…
Cotton Bowl - Mizzou vs Ohio State
The big news coming out of this matchup is the decision of multiple Buckeyes players to opt out of this game and enter the transfer portal.
Most notably, Quarterback Kyle McCord and Wide Receiver Julian Fleming. There have been a handful of other members who have also done the same thing - but those have been the most impactful as of this moment. The expectation is for their star WR Marvin Harrison Jr to opt out to prepare for the upcoming NFL Draft, and potentially the same for their other WR Emeka Egbuka.
Due to this news, and expectations of what is to come, Mizzou went from as high as a three-point underdog to now just a one-point underdog.
And, to be honest, even if McCord and company didn’t enter the transfer portal I’d still believe there would be support on the side of the Tigers. Coach Drinkwitz has turned this program around and has brought in some studs. This team is playing inspired and have exceeded expectations set by the general public from the beginning of this season. So this game should mean a whole lot to a team like Mizzou.
As for OSU, well, each year their expectations are to reach the CFB Playoffs. They fell short of that this season after a tough loss in their final game to Michigan. Their goal was not met and now some of their key players are departing. How much incentive will there be on the Buckeyes sideline? Some, I’m sure, but not as much as Missouri’s.
The Tigers ended the regular season ranking 25th in total offense, and Ohio State finished 36th. Defensively, OSU did end up 3rd, whereas Mizzou finished 38th. However, the Buckeyes were playing against some of the weaker offenses throughout the Big 10 Conference. Missouri was able to hold their own, for the most part, against more electrifying offenses in the SEC.
In these types of bowl games, the offensive game plan and dominance is what I’m more so looking to invest in as opposed to the defense. And I can't imagine the Buckeyes improve on that side of the ball without their starting QB.
I could keep digging into stats - but I’m sure you get the gist. I made a play on Mizzou at +2.5 on Monday; I realize the spread has since altered. I would recommend a play on the Tigers down to as low as a pick’em.
Play: Mizzou (+2.5) vs Ohio State; risk 1.10 units to win 1.00
Alamo Bowl - Arizona vs Oklahoma
More significant transfer portal news arises in this matchup down in San Antonio, Texas. The Sooners lose their QB Dillon Gabriel, along with a few tailbacks and offensive lineman. This has caused the Wildcats to move from laying just a point to now laying as high as -3. However, the spread, and moneyline, is varying across many different sportsbooks so as always make sure you shop around for the best number.
Arizona was a fascinating team to watch develop and progress this season. And a lot of the excitement around the program revolved around Freshman QB Noah Fifita. Fifita came in as the main starter on September 30th when the Wildcats hosted the Washington Huskies. Arizona lost that game 31-24, and their next game 43-41 in triple OT @ USC, but then won out the rest of their schedule to finish with a 9-3 record.
Fifita accumulated a stat line of 2,515 passing yards, 23 TDs, 5 Ints and a completion rate of 73.6%. His offense finished 18th in the nation and averaged 6.8 yards per play.
We certainly can’t neglect his upcoming opponent and their offense, though. The Sooners finished 5th and racked up 6.7 yards per play. But, this is expected to be a less efficient group without their starting QB. And, Arizona’s defense was actually quite stout, as they ended up 36th in total defense and limited opponents to 341 total yards per contest.
On the other side, Oklahoma, with their defensive-minded Head Coach Brent Venables, comes into this matchup with the nation’s 79th-ranked defense that allows about 390 total yards per game.
Much like my assessment on the Tigers - the Wildcats also fit the bill as a squad that exceeded expectations and will be heading into their bowl game with much to prove and play for.
I’m banking on them carrying their momentum and winning streak into this matchup and ultimately ending their season on a high note.
BetRivers has the best ML price I’ve seen on Arizona (-139), so I will pay a bit more on that as opposed to laying the points on the key number of three. I would recommend a bet on their moneyline up to a price of -145.
Play: Arizona ML (-139); risk 1.39 units to win 1.00
Rose Bowl - Michigan vs Alabama
The Crimson Tide treated us very well when we took +6.5 with them against the Bulldogs in the SEC Championship game. Conversely, the Wolverines couldn’t muster three touchdowns, despite scoring 26 points, and killed our other wager we had this past Saturday.
Despite what you’re about to read, I don’t hold that against Michigan…sort of.
I am going to be one of many who will be taking the +1.5 with Bama.
You may be thinking “Danny, why not just take the moneyline for a little bit of plus money at that point? The chances the game lands on 1 is very slim.”
I hear ya. And, you’re right. It is a very minimal chance that the outcome of this matchup falls on one. But, I’ll take any cushion, though minimal, I can get in this game. And, the best ML price I’ve seen is +105, which doesn’t necessarily move the needle enough for me to select that instead of taking a point and a half. To each their own, though.
There were two main reasons as to why I played the Tide in their conference championship game, and they persist as the focal points for why I’m selecting them once again.
The defense and the mobility of Jalen Milroe.
Alabama finished their season ranking 18th in total defense and allowed 4.9 yards per play. And that was against primarily SEC opponents, who’s offenses are much better than the competition Michigan faced in the Big 10.
Jim Harbaugh’s group sits 2nd in the nation in terms of total defense and limits opponents to 4.3 yards per play. In defensive EPA and success rate the Wolverines did finish their season in better standings than the Tide, but, again, consider their opponents all year.
Taking a look at the offensive side of the ball - Bama averaged over 400 yards of offense per game and Michigan racked up 380. Also, the Crimson Tide had a better offensive success rate than the Wolverines and were more efficient in the red zone (94% compared to 88%).
I think Harbaugh’s defense will struggle with the mobility of Milroe, and Nick Saban will have another attempt to claim a College Football Championship.
Play: Alabama (+1.5) vs Michigan; risk 1.10 units to win 1.00
*I’m more than likely going to add a play in the Sugar Bowl, between Texas and Washington, but I am holding off for the time being.*
Recap:
Mizzou (+2.5) vs OSU
Arizona ML (-139) vs Oklahoma
Alabama (+1.5) vs Michigan
CFB Record: 8-6 (+0.31)
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