Oregon @ Utah
This matchup will determine which of these teams' playoff hopes will continue stay afloat for the remainder of the season.
Circa opened the Ducks as a 6-point favorite, with the total set at 47.5. The original numbers were posted on Sunday morning, and since then we have seen Oregon get up to as high as -7, but settle at -6.5, and the total get as high as 52, but dip down to 48.
There is going to be temptation into taking the points with the dog for a plethora of reasons. Most notably, because the Utes just won outright as a 7-point underdog against Caleb Williams and the Trojans last week.
Furthermore, Utah Head Coach Kyle Whittingham, has his defense ranking 14th in the nation, allowing 5.1 yards per play and 295.4 total yards of offense.
However, his squad had their biggest test last week against Lincoln Riley and USC, and allowed them to put up 32 points and average 6.9 yards per play.
This week, Whittingam and company are facing an even better offense in Oregon. The Ducks rank 2nd in total offense, average 7.9 yards per play and over 551 total yards of offense.
Dan Lanning’s unit can kill you both ways. In the air, they are racking up 11.4 yards per completion and throwing for 326 yards per game. And then, on the ground, they rank 6th in rushing offense with 6.8 yards per carry and over 225 total yards.
As for Lanning’s defense - they are almost as dominant as their offense. Oregon is 44th in defensive passing efficiency (9.9 yards per completion and 217.4 passing yards per game allowed), and 11th against the run.
It’s important to realize just how solid the Ducks have been against the run because Utah is enamored with handing off the rock as opposed to relying on the air yards.
The Utes are running the ball 44 times per game (10th most), averaging 4.2 yards per rush attempt and over 183 rushing yards per game. However, Oregon is limiting opposing tailbacks to just 3.3 yards per carry and 95 total rushing yards.
So if Utah’s offense struggles handing the ball off - can we trust them to put together a viable passing attack?
Remember, Cam Rising has been ruled out for the remainder of the season; so quarterback duties will continue to go to Bryson Barnes.
Barnes had his best game of the season last Saturday against the Trojans:
14-23, 235 yards, 3 TD, 1 INT
However, it's important to acknowledge how poor USC’s defense is. And, when you look at his overall numbers throughout the season - his stats have been mediocre:
633 passing yards, 58.4% completion, 4 TD, 3 INT.
Those aren’t necessarily the type of numbers that get your juices flowing knowing you’re going up against a formidable defense in Oregon.
On the other side, the Ducks QB - Bo Nix, has been tremendous. Nix has thrown for over 2,000 yards, he is completing over 78% of his passes and has a TD-INT ratio of 19-1.
And, finally, just to throw out some other areas of statistical interest, Oregon has the advantage in 3rd down conversions with a success rate of 53% (5th), whereas Utah is at 36.5% (94th). And then in terms of red zone offense, the Ducks are scoring a touchdown when entering the red zone 73% of the time, and the Utes are doing that at a clip of just 54%.
There is enough of a discrepancy between the two starting quarterbacks that make it worthy of laying the points on the road. And, Utah’s defense will appear vulnerable, yet again, versus a lethal offense. Except, this time, their opponent will actually have a competent defense that will limit Barnes’ success, unlike the Trojans.
Play: Oregon (-6); 1.21 units to win 1.00
*Price Found at BetRivers*
Purdue @ Nebraska
I’m sure most people don’t give a damn about this game - but that’s what I’m here for. I’m here to give you a reason to care.
This has the makings of a classic, disgusting Big 10 matchup that consists of punting, punting and more punting, along with very limited success in the passing game.
As of now, at Memorial Stadium in Lincoln, Nebraska, it appears the conditions will feature heavy winds and perhaps some rain.
As we know, the rain isn’t necessarily a deal breaker on points being scored, although it doesn’t help. The real issue would be the wind; and once the wind gusts get into the double-digits, that’s when you should be concerned with scoring.
The wind, naturally, impacts the passing game in a big way. And it seems like we can expect that to be the case this Saturday.
So which team should that benefit?
Nebraska would be the definite answer under different circumstances. Well, heck, it still does give the Big Red an advantage because they are an offense that specializes in the ground attack (20th in rushing offense, 4.9 YPC & 195 RYPG).
However, those numbers may take a dip going forward due to injuries. This past week, the Huskers found out that they will be losing three offensive lineman; and two out of the three are gone for the rest of the year.
Matt Rhule’s squad seems like they can’t catch a break with the injuries this season.
The good news for Nebraska, though, is that Purdue’s run defense is below average. The Boilermakers rank 80th in run defense, allowing 4.2 YPC and over 153 rushing yards per game.
As for Purdue’s offense, it’s a group that would prefer to pass the ball. Unfortunately, not only will this forecast make that more difficult, but their QB, Hudson Card, is not doing them any favors this season regardless of the weather.
Over his last three games, Card has completed 56-98 pass attempts (57%), thrown for 590 yards and has a TD-INT ratio of 4-2.
His overall numbers this season look like this:
1,617 passing yards, 60.6% completion, 7 TD, 5 INT.
If the Boilermakers have to hone in on their ground attack because of Card’s lack of success, or because of the wind, then that’s not going to bode well for Purdue.
Nebraska ranks 4th in the nation in run defense. They are limiting opponents to just 2.6 yards per rush attempt and 76.6 total rushing yards per contest. Overall, the Huskers rank 20th in total defense.
My original handicap for this game revolved around betting the home team to win outright. And while I still give them the nod in that department, ultimately, the injuries upfront make it difficult to trust the Cornhuskers.
Where I do still have faith in Nebraska, though, is on the defensive side of the ball. And that is a large reason as to why I will be betting the total.
We already expect the Huskers to emphasize their ground game more than they have before, but now, because of the weather conditions, we can assume that will be the case for Purdue as well. And since both defenses will know what to expect for a majority of the play calls, they should have success in limiting explosive gains and rapid scoring.
All of that should equate to a grotesque, old-fashioned Big 10 affair, which hopefully sets up nicely for an opportunity at betting this game under the total.
Play: Total UNDER 40; 1.10 units to win 1.00
GAME I’M CONSIDERING:
Louisville (-4) vs Duke
I’m waiting to see where this line movement goes. I lean toward Louisville, but I want to let this matchup marinate a bit more as the week progresses. If I add anything with it, or any other game, I’ll make note about it either here, Twitter (@dannyburke5) or Instagram (@dburkeee5).
Plays:
Oregon (-6)
Nebraska / Purdue UNDER 40
College Football Record: 4-2 (+1.75)
Comments