Two teams that had their winning streak snapped in their previous games are squaring off at 11:00pm ET tonight in San Diego.
Nevada (15-2, 2-1 Conf) are coming off a bad home loss, on Friday, vs Boise State (64-56). San Diego State (14-3, 3-1 Conf), on the other hand, fell deeply on the road last Saturday at New Mexico (88-70).
Circa Sportsbook opened the Aztecs as a five-point favorite for this matchup. Since that point, SDSU has received the love, which has pushed them up to as high as -6.5.
That seems like a few too many points to be laying.
The Wolfpack rank better in terms of effective field goal percentage (52.3%) compared to the Aztecs (50.8%). Plus, from beyond the perimeter, Nevada is connecting on 33.8% of their attempts, whereas SDSU is making 32.7%.
Defensively, the Wolfpack have an EFGD% of 45.7%, and the Aztecs are at 47%. From three-point land, Nevada is allowing opponents to make 30.4% of their attempts and SDSU is at 29%.
A disadvantage we may witness tonight could occur on the offensive glass as the home team is racking up about 11 offensive rebounds per game and their opponent only 8.5.
However, what should be a benefit to the underdog is their discipline with the rock. The Wolfpack turn the ball over at a rate of just 9.2 times per game (T-5th), and the Aztecs do so at a clip of 11.2 times per game. Not a big difference, per se, but when you’re on the road and catching a hefty amount of points - it is important to note.
Where Nevada may also thrive in the underdog role revolves around their production at the charity stripe. They attempt about 26 free throws per game while their opponent averages 22.6 FTA.
I believe the Wolfpack’s carefulness of the ball and the ability to score when needed will bode well for them catching 6.5 points in this spot and allow them to keep this game close.
Play: Nevada +6.5 (-110); risk 1.10 units to win 1.00
CBB Record: 1-2 (-1.45)
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