Georgia vs Alabama
How does Bama respond after a miracle finish at Auburn in the Iron Bowl last week? Is it appropriate to cut the Crimson Tide a little bit of slack and attribute that game to being a lookahead spot to the Conference Championship matchup?
I do think they need to be held accountable for the lackadaisical performance, but I also put some stock into Nick Saban’s crew overlooking the Tigers a bit.
Regardless of what we think - there is now meaning in this SEC Championship game because of that result. Alabama still holds playoff aspirations and would have a very real case to get in if they can knock off the number one team in the country in the Georgia Bulldogs.
Do I believe it’s possible? Absolutely. Will I bet the moneyline instead of taking as high as +6.5 on the spread with the underdog? No thank you. But, Godspeed if you choose that direction.
I will say, though, you probably shouldn’t be taking the points with the Crimson Tide if you do not believe they have a legit shot at winning this game. The spread is under a massively key number of seven; if you’re taking points under that key spot then you should have confidence that your side can win this thing outright. But, you also understand that this game may very well come down to the wire where it’s a 50/50 proposition and knowing you have a handful of points as a safety net is certainly more enticing and comforting.
In my mind, there is not enough separation between these two squads that warrants the Bulldogs being as high as 6.5-point favorites.
In the SEC, Georgia ranks 2nd in offensive EPA and Alabama is 4th. Defensively speaking, the Tide ranks 2nd and the Bulldogs come in at 3rd.
Both of these teams are very similar in stats like yards per play allowed, yards per completion allowed and yards per rush attempt allowed. Also, 3rd down offense and defense - much of the same.
Here’s where we see some discrepancies:
The turnover battle favors Saban and company. Bama is +7 in turnover margin, while Georgia is +0.
Then, if we look at the red zone numbers, the Crimson Tide have the advantage on both sides of the ball.
Offensively, Bama has scored a touchdown, upon entering the red zone, at a clip of 71%; Kirby Smart’s bunch has done so at a rate of 66%.
Defensively, the Tide have allowed opponents to score a TD, when entering the red zone, only 52% of the time, while the Bulldogs have allowed it to occur 60% of the time.
And that’s just touchdowns. If we look at the overall red zone defensive efficiency numbers, which includes field goals, Alabama ranks 55th (82%) and Georgia ranks 111th (90%).
It’s not much, but it’s enough worth being cognizant about in a game where these two teams are neck and neck and the results present immense implications.
I understand a lot of people are having a tough time trusting the underdog mainly because of the quarterback play. Jalen Milroe has had a rocky season, sure, but he has turned it around in the latter half. And the threat he poses with his mobility presents another element that may complicate Georgia’s ability in limiting him. No, he’s not going to end up in the Heisman conversation, but he certainly had his “Heisman moment” last week against Auburn. Hopefully he carries that moxy into this matchup against the steamrolling Bulldogs.
Play: Alabama +6.5 (-115) vs Georgia; risk 1.15 units to win 1.00
Michigan vs Iowa
Ahh yes, another Big 10 Championship game where the Hawkeyes somehow sneak their way in despite having the most mundane offense of all time. Are Iowa fans even looking forward to this game? Seriously, it’s the same result each time they get here. I mean, personally, I am jealous I’ve never gotten to witness my Huskers there, but that’s why it would be cool to see because ever since I have been affiliated with the university, starting in 2014, they haven’t made it. So even if they got absolutely pummeled, which they would in this instance and already have vs Michigan, it would still be neat to see them in Indianapolis. But, at this point with Iowa, it’s like, man, do I really have to take time out of my day to watch the worst offense in all of college football potentially get shut out on national television?
Well, if your answer to that is yes, then let me give you a bet that will make this game somewhat tolerable.
Michigan Over 2.5 Total Touchdowns (-170); risk 1.70 units to win 1.00 Available at DraftKings
Michigan is averaging 4.5 touchdowns per game. Heck, even over their last three games, without Head Coach Jim Harbaugh, and within the span of the toughest stretch of their schedule - they still averaged 3 TDs per game. They have scored at least three touchdowns in every single game this season.
Yeah yeah, I get it I get it - the Hawkeyes have a studly defense and have allowed the fewest touchdowns per game in college football this year (1.0), but that doesn’t concern me.
No doubt their defense is really good, but I wouldn’t call them great considering they have faced high school caliber offenses all year, with the exception of Penn State who racked up 31. And guess what? Michigan is a much better team than PSU.
Also, with the return of Harbaugh, you’re telling me he won’t try to make a statement and run up the score? C’mon, the man is notorious for padding his winning margin and covering numbers. He will absolutely keep his foot on the pedal the entire game if presented the opportunity.
Furthermore, the spread for this game is anywhere from -21.5 to -22.5. In order for the Wolverines to cover that number, realistically, they are going to have to score at least three touchdowns. Also, their team total is listed anywhere from 27.5 to 28.5. Again, they will at least need to cross the plane three times to have a chance at going over that.
So rather than sweat out those larger numbers, why wouldn’t I just bank on them getting at least three TDs instead of worrying about needing a fourth, hitting the extra points, and / or hitting numerous field goals to cover them?
Yes, it’s a chalky bet, but I’m willing to pay a little bit more to sweat a little bit less. Let’s hope for a dominating Michigan performance at Lucas Oil Stadium this Saturday evening.
Recap of Plays:
Alabama +6.5 (-115)
Michigan Over 2.5 TDs Scored (-170)
College Football Record: 7-5 (+1.01)
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