Play-in Game: Bulls (-3) vs. Hawks, 8:30 p.m. CT, Wednesday
Two teams that are both familiar with one another and the play-in game will have a chance to prove their worth tonight in an attempt to play the loser of the 76ers vs Heat.
Chicago (39-43) will get home court advantage for just this first game. At the United Center, they finished with a record of 20-21.
Atlanta (36-46) accumulated a road record of 15-26. Though, they did overcome the Bulls in their last effort in the Windy City, winning 113-101.
Chicago did win the other two meetings - one at the UC and one at State Farm Arena.
Both of these teams have dealt with constant injuries all season.
The Bulls have been without Zach LaVine and Patrick Williams for most of the year, while the Hawks have missed Saddiq Bey, Jalen Johnson and Onyeka Okongwu.
Atlanta had also been without their star player in Trae Young, until he finally returned to action for the final three games of the regular season. Young had been out since February 23rd with a torn ligament in his left finger.
Young is a massive addition to his roster - especially for a do or die scenario like the play-in game. In three play-in appearances he has averaged 29 points on over 43% shooting.
Last year Chicago defeated the Raptors in their first play-in game before eventually losing to the runner-up Miami Heat.
Both of these teams are pretty bad - there’s no way around it.
Being a die-hard Bulls fan my entire life, though, I am well-aware of how this situation is going to play out.
See, the organization is in shambles - to put it very politely. Owner Jerry Reinsdorf is content with mediocrity. He probably views the play-in game as technically being the postseason, so he considers that a win. And, hey, the Bulls had the highest attendance rate in the league (20,624), so if it ain’t broke don’t fix it, right?
Welcome to being a Bulls fan post-Michael Jordan.
Apologies for my sidetrack of sorrows from being a fan - it’s just the outcome of them winning this game and then losing the next is inevitable. It’s just the perfect amount of pain, torture and teasing of them actually getting into the playoffs, before they fall short.
With that being said, no - that’s not the main basis of my handicap, but hard to ignore nonetheless.
Regardless, I still view Chicago as the right side. A lot of that has to do with potential winner of the NBA’s Clutch Player of the Year Award, DeMar DeRozan, being an outstanding closer.
DeRozan has played in 40 clutch games; he leads the league in clutch scoring while shooting 48.7% from the floor and 46.7% from beyond the arc in that classified span of time.
In three games vs Atlanta this season, he has averaged 28.3 ppg on 49% shooting.
Defensively, the Bulls used to be a dominant bunch. Their numbers slipped this season, though. They rank 17th in opponent ppg (115.8) and 23rd in defensive eFG% (56.1%).
But, the Hawks are even lower as they surrender over 120 ppg (25th) and allow opponents to have an effective field goal percentage of 57.5% (29th).
Unlike Atlanta’s roster, Chicago features several players who can step up and defend ferociously when need be - especially against a lethal score like Trae Young.
Javonte Green ranks in the 94th percentile for points allowed per 100 possessions and Alex Caruso stands right behind him in the 93rd percentile.
Plus, Ayo Dosunmu has emerged as a solid perimeter defender. He leads the team in defensive eFG% allowed.
In the two games Young faced the Bulls he scored 21 and 19 points respectively, and was limited to shooting under 29% from the floor and 23% from three-point range.
It’s going to be a close one, but Chicago will find a way to grind this game out with their attendance-leading crowd behind their back.
I’m going to be playing the moneyline instead of the spread. The Bulls always make things more interesting than they need to be toward the end of games (hence DeRozan playing in 40 clutch games). I’d rather pay extra for a bit more cushion room.
Play: Bulls ML (-140); Risk 2.80 units to win 2.00
REMINDER:
I'll have a column coming out soon on thesportingtribune.com, which will feature my plays on the already-established series and their respective props.
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