NL Cy Young Race Update:
Zac Gallen is human, folks! On yesterday's write up I discussed how I am sitting on a Spencer Strider (8/1) NL Cy Young ticket and that I would be waiting to see how Gallen performed against one of the best offenses (Dodgers), to decide whether or not I should hedge.
After allowing 6 ER on 9 hits in 5.1 innings of work, Gallen's odds have dropped to +410 at FanDuel. Like I said, if he faltered, I expected those numbers to shift - but not that drastically.
So that would appear as a fantastic hedging opportunity with our Strider ticket, right?
Well, the only issue is there is a man named Blake Snell, who could be standing in the way of both these guys. The market not only shifted drastically because of Gallen's struggles, but because of Snell throwing seven shutout innings, while allowing just two hits, against the Cardinals. We all realize that St. Louis ain't no world beaters when it comes to facing lefties, but, still, it was an incredibly impressive outing from the southpaw nonetheless.
And it's not like this just came out of nowhere for Snell. Since May 25th, he has given up only 16 earned runs!
At this point in time, not only does Snell lead the National League in ERA (2.60), but the entire league. Some books have Snell at +170, others have him at -130. This is why we always stress the importance of shopping around for the best number and having as many outlets available to your betting menu as possible.
Despite his outstanding ERA, Snell has been slow to get recognition in this race because he is behind in several other key categories. Also, the Padres have been an utter disappointment. On numerous occasions, Snell wouldn't get the offensive support he needed, which would ultimately halt a boost to his wins category and limit his positive exposure from the national media.
But, before we make any rash decisions, let's revisit the stats among these NL Cy Young contenders to see how they stack up among each other; only this time I will implement Snell's numbers and give an updated look at Gallen's:
ERA: Gallen (3.32) | Strider (3.46) | Snell (2.60)
W/L: Gallen (14-6) | Strider (15-4) | Snell (11-9)
FIP WAR: Gallen (4.0) | Strider (4.7) | Snell (2.8)
RA/9 WAR: Gallen (4.6) | Strider (3.6) | Snell (5.2)
K/9: Gallen (9.45) | Strider (13.85) | Snell (11.66)
BB/9: Gallen (1.92) | Strider (2.76) | Snell (5.13)
Projections:
FIP: Gallen (3.36) | Strider (2.80) | Snell (3.74)
xFIP: Gallen (3.53) | Strider (2.89) | Snell (3.63)
We have already acknowledged Snell takes the cake in terms of ERA, but he does trail both Gallen and Strider in W/L and FIP-based WAR. Although, his RA/9-based WAR is impressively higher than Gallen and Strider both.
If you notice, as opposed to yesterday, I did add base on balls allowed per nine innings. I thought this was important because this has been a constant issue with Snell. His walk rate is incredibly high and could end up being detrimental to his success down the stretch. Granted, I've been saying that for a while and he's still defied those numbers, so who the hell knows.
I also made an addition of bolding the leader in each respective category. Strider not only takes the cake in the first block of stats, but also in the projections.
So, again, the question remains...can we trust Spencer Strider?
The numbers are telling us we should be able to. And, remember, he will get a crack at the dangerous Dodgers in his next start. It's going to feel like a playoff game at Dodger Stadium and this will be Strider's best opportunity to solidify himself as top dog. It appears that Snell will get to face the Giants and Astros in his next two outings; not the easiest opponents to say the least.
I think I'm going to remain stubborn and hold on to my Strider 8/1 ticket for the time being. Let's see what the kid can do against the big boys in La La Land. And if you feel so inclined to hop on the train with me - the best price you can snag Strider at is +200 over at FanDuel.
Tuesday's MLB Slate:
6:40pm ET - Angels @ Phillies
Tyler Anderson is taking the bump tonight for the Angels, and anytime I see him as the listed pitcher, and it's against a competent offense, a signal goes off in my head.
The lefty, Anderson, has a 5.35 ERA, 5.41 xFIP and a 5.16 SIERA. And it's not like he's getting unlucky or anything like that, his BABIP (Batting average of balls in play) is at .321. Ideally, for a pitcher, you are under the .300 mark. And if you happen to be above it, but you have an xFIP that's sub-4.00, then you're probably getting a tad shafted. However, that is not the case with Anderson. He is just plain bad.
Against LHP this month, the Phillies are 7th in both wOBA (.365) and wRC+ (130) and then 8th in OPS (.857). There is also a ton of familiarity with the potential batter's in Philadelphia's lineup against Anderson:
Schwarber: .333 AVG, .333 SLG
Turner: .500 AVG, .800 SLG
Harper: .500 AVG, 1.500 SLG
Realmuto: .300 AVG, .500 SLG
So some of the most important bats in the lineup should be expected to rake this evening.
Despite all of those numbers listed, I do have an issue in backing the Phillies to win this game tonight. And that issue is Philadelphia's starter Michael Lorenzen.
Lorenzen has a solid ERA of 3.69, but a concerning xFIP of 4.52. Also, the market is moving against Lorenzen, so it is causing a bit of timidness in my handicap on the home favorite.
But that doesn't mean I want to neglect fading Anderson. So, instead, let's look at an alternative option:
Anderson Under 16.5 Outs Recorded (-108) at BetRivers.
Anderson has stayed under this mark in 15/23 starts this season. He's averaging 5.1 IP per game. However, over his last four starts, he's averaged just 4.4 IP and has stayed under the mark of 16.5 in all of them.
Let's hope that trend continues tonight vs this hot Phillies offense.
Play: Tyler Anderson Under 16.5 Outs Recorded (-108)
Tonight's Lean:
7:10pm ET - Astros @ Red Sox
This game is very intriguing to me. You have two young pitchers in J.P. France of the Astros and Brayan Bello of the Red Sox.
These two squared off against each other, in Houston, in each of their prior starts.
Here were the results for each respective pitcher:
Bello: 7.0 IP, 9 hits, 1 ER
France: 2.1 IP, 11 hits, 10 ER
Just a liiiiittle difference between the two in that game, eh?
France's performance - while beyond brutal - is not the most appalling result. I mean, sure, giving up 10 earned runs in that short span is fairly shocking. But, what I'm trying to say is that the underlying metrics have been showing that he was due for some regression.
France's ERA is 3.51, but his xFIP is 4.58 and his SIERA is 4.76.
Boston vs RHP in the month of August, is 5th in both OPS (.819) and wOBA (.351), as well as 6th in wRC+ (118).
So why would we not look to officially fade France again?
Well, the Astros are the Astros. It's always a little bit tough to fade the defending World Series champs. But, more importantly, it's because Houston has been mashing the ball as of late.
The Astros have batted in 39 runs throughout their last three games. I'd say that's pretty darn good.
And as much as I do like Bello, he is showing slight signs of regression (3.56 ERA, 4.06 xFIP) and Houston now has more familiarity against his stuff. Considering Bello allowed only 1 ER against this lethal lineup the last go around - I'm sure they'll be seeking some revenge this evening.
The market is also showing slight favor to the road team. The Astros moneyline, at Circa, opened at +112 and is now listed at +107. It's nothing too crazy with the movement, but it's enough to be cognizant about. Because based off of these pitchers last performances against each other, you'd probably suspect the line to be gravitating toward the Red Sox, right? I sure would. But that's why I will sit idly by and just observe from afar.
Tonight's Play: Tyler Anderson Under 16.5 Outs Recorded (-108)
MLB Record: 73-63-1 (+0.51)
Futures Pending:
Logan Webb NL Cy Young (33/1)
Brewers Under 85.5 Wins (-115)
Blue Jays (20/1) to Win World Series
Marlins to Miss Playoffs (-140)
Spencer Strider 8/1 to Win NL Cy Young
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