*This Article was Written up and Posted on Saturday Afternoon...Lines may have Changed*
Cowboys @ Chargers
Not too many numbers are going to point in favor of the home dog in this spot, yet - that’s the direction I’m betting.
Defensively speaking, we all understand that Dallas gets the nod. But, maybe they’re not as good as we all thought.
Up to this point, the Cowboys have played the 25th easiest strength of schedule, according to nfeloapp.com. Despite that, they have just a 3-2 record to show for it.
Mike McCarthy’s bunch has faced the Giants (32nd in total offense), the Jets (27th in total offense), the Cardinals, who they lost to (15th in total offense), the Patriots (26th in total offense) and then the only respectable team - the 49ers (3rd in total offense).
Against the two best offenses that Dallas faced, they allowed 28 points (Cardinals) and 42 points (49ers).
The Cowboys now get to matchup against the fifth ranked team in the NFL in terms of total offense. And an offense that gets one of their best playmakers, Austin Ekeler, back in the mix.
Justin Herbert ranks 6th in terms of EPA/Play, CPOE (Completion Percentage Over Expected) and air yards (8.8).
On the other side, Dak Prescott ranks 10th in EPA/Play, 13th in CPOE and 28th in air yards (6.6).
Prescott only thrives when his defense provides him a comfortable lead - and I don’t believe he’ll get that against Los Angeles.
Also, the last 20 teams to play San Francisco, the following week after doing so those teams are 1-19 straight up!
The Cowboys will suffer another loss on primetime and we will once again witness why Herbert is one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL.
Play: Chargers (+2.5); 1.10 units to win 1.00
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