6:40 p.m. ET - Brewers @ Marlins
Milwaukee will seek a series win down in South Beach behind the arm of Freddy Peralta.
The right-hander has posted a 4.17 ERA, but a strong xFIP of 3.29.
His batting average of ball in play is .292, and his skill interactive ERA is 3.07.
Seeing promising numbers in those analytical categories is great in general, but especially considering that Peralta has gotten roughed up lately.
Over his last five starts he’s surrendered 18 earned runs.
I’m expecting him to bounce back, as the numbers indicate, against a brutal offense in Miami.
This season the Marlins rank 26th in weighted runs created plus (wRC+) against RHP (90).
Conversely, the Brewers will be facing a left-handed pitcher tonight and perform particularly well against them. They are top-10 in wRC+ vs LHP this season (110).
Jesus Luzardo is the southpaw representing the home team.
Luzardo holds a 5.02 ERA, but he’s actually been pitching better recently.
Over his last three starts he’s given up just 4 ER. His most recent outing consisted of a six-inning shutout against the Mets.
The market is showing a bit of adoration towards the lefty, and I can understand why based on his past outcomes.
However, in a series clinching game with a solid pitcher who is due for a quality start, along with having the better offense behind him - I believe the favorite in this matchup is still the correct side.
And even if Luzardo does perform well - eventually he’ll be taken out and then Milwaukee’s offense can face a bullpen that holds a 4.58 ERA.
Play: Brewers ML (-135); Risk 1.35 units to win 1.00
6:50 p.m. ET - Red Sox @ Rays
Tampa Bay is on the verge of being swept by their division rival tonight.
Boston scored 5 runs in both Game 1 and Game 2.
The Rays have been held to just 2 runs altogether.
An angle that a lot of MLB handicappers pursue revolves around this exact situation. A team attempting to avoid a sweep. It’s even better if it’s a solid squad at home - and that’s what we have here.
Ryan Pepiot will be taking the bump for Tampa. He has not pitched since May 5th and was just activated off of the 15-day injured list.
Prior to his injury he was performing very well with a 3.68 ERA, 2.94 xERA, a 3.66 FIP and an xFIP of 3.62.
Plus, his BABIP was very low (.217) and his SIERA backed up the other numbers (3.34).
If he can pick up where he left off then the Rays should be set up nicely this evening.
Opposing the home team will be right-hander Brayan Bello.
Bello is 1-3 with a 6.92 ERA in five career starts versus Tampa Bay.
This season specifically, he posts a 3.96 ERA, but an xERA of 4.32 and a FIP of 5.12. He’s also been susceptible to giving up the long ball, as his home-run-to-fly-ball-ratio is at 25%.
As expected, the market is showing support for the team that's looking to avoid being swept. The Rays opened around -115 and can now be viewed as high as -135.
Though, the best number I’ve seen is -124 and that’s what I’ll be laying with them tonight.
Play: Rays ML (-124); Risk 1.24 units to win 1.00
7:07 p.m. ET - White Sox @ Blue Jays
Well how about this? The Chicago White Sox actually have a chance to win a series. And against a good team on the road nonetheless!
Will it actually come to fruition, though? Most likely not.
In classic White Sox fashion, last night they lost Eloy Jimenez to ANOTHER injury.
In other news…water is wet.
So there’s another absent bat to an offense that’s ranked 29th in wRC+ vs RHP this season.
The righty they’ll be going up against is the veteran Chris Bassitt.
The 35-year-old hasn’t had an ideal season thus far, but faces a quality opportunity to turn things around tonight.
His ERA is 5.03, but his xFIP does show promise at 4.23. His ground ball rate is reassuring at 43%, and considering his BABIP is a tad higher at .326, perhaps that can be attributed to a bit of bad luck.
Let’s hope for positive regression out of Bassitt.
On the other side, Chicago called up Nick Nastrini to the rotation.
Nastrini already did a brief stint with the Southsiders this season. He pitched 8.0 innings, accumulated a 7.88 ERA and an xFIP of 6.24.
Yes yes - I realize it’s a very small sample size.
But, if we take a gander at his numbers in Triple-A, we can see that they aren’t much better.
5.83 is his ERA and his xFIP is at 4.65.
Nastrini will be going against an offense that has for the most part struggled against righties this season, ranking 24th in wRC+.
However, over the course of the last two weeks the Blue Jays have picked up the slack. They rank 13th in wRC+ (106) throughout that span.
And with a chance to win the series at home against the woeful White Sox - I’m willing to bet on them padding those stats even more.
Play: Blue Jays -1.5 (-110); Risk 1.10 units to win 1.00
MLB Record: 34-30-1 (+0.16)
*****REMINDER*****
Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals tips-off tonight! Check out my article over at "The Sporting Tribune" to see how I'm handicapping that series...
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