We've got one game on tonight's slate that stands out to me. That matchup would feature the best team in Major League Baseball, the Atlanta Braves, who are hosting the New York Mets.
Atlanta is looking to bounce back after a 10-4 loss last night to New York, and is hoping they can get that spark generated by rookie pitcher Bryce Elder.
Elder (9-4, 3.46 ERA) has gone through some rough patches this season, but as is the case with most first year starters.
Nevertheless, the season is winding down and it's time for him to step up consistently as his team will have the highest expectations heading into the postseason and they are going to need big contributions from the right hander. Elder did get back in the W column in his last start, as he went seven innings with just 1 hit and no earned runs allowed against the Yankees. Let's hope he can continue that rhythm into tonight's affair.
Despite what I hope, it's important to recognize that his underlying metrics are not the most promising (4.37 xFIP, 4.64 SIERA), but if there's a team where he can overcome the analytics it certainly could be the Mets, which has been a team that can't help but get in their own way. Plus, Elder has already faced them once this season and in that outing he went six innings, allowed four hits and four earned runs. The Braves were trailing in that game and ultimately came back to win despite Pete Alonso's trash talking to Elder after he knocked a homer off of him.
Even if the trust for Elder is not as deep as we'd hope, the bet here more so reflects the confidence I have in the Braves bats. After only knocking in four runs with David Peterson starting yesterday, Atlanta should be more than motivated to take advantage of an inferior pitcher in Tylor Megill (7-6, 5.53 ERA). The righty, Megill, not only has a high ERA, but the analytics back it up in showing that he should continue to perform poorly, considering he has an xFIP of 5.17 and a SIERA of 5.32.
Furthermore, on the road is where Megill's opponents are really pounding his pitches:
FIP: 6.24 / SLG: .550 / wOBA: .421
Megill just faced Atlanta back on August 11th, and in that outing he went 5.1 IP, allowed 9 hits and 5 ER. He also faced the Braves back on May 1st, and allowed 3 ER in 5.1 innings worked in that spot.
We know how tremendous these Braves bats have been and we should continue to expect the same given the opposing pitcher and Atlanta's numbers vs RHP since the All Star Break:
133 wRC+ (2nd) | .372 wOBA (2nd) | .877 OPS (2nd) | .318 BABIP (3rd)
Even if Elder doesn't give us the quality start we hope for, which could be the case considering his projections and the fact that this total is in the double digits, let's remember that this Braves bullpen is one of the most reliable in the big leagues (3.43 ERA, 3.95 xFIP), whereas the Mets have not been held in the same regard to say the least (4.50 ERA, 4.72 xFIP).
This bet might be more of a sweat than it should be due to the volatility of Elder, but the Braves bats should handle most of the heavy lifting to ultimately get the job done.
Play: Braves -1.5 (-108)
MLB Record: 68-60-1 (-1.49)
Futures Pending:
Logan Webb NL Cy Young (33/1)
Brewers Under 85.5 Wins (-115)
Blue Jays (20/1) to Win World Series
Marlins to Miss Playoffs (-140)
Spencer Strider 8/1 to Win NL Cy Young
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