Tuesday Recap
Last night concluded with a 2-1-1 finish (+.73):
Red Sox -1.5 (+102) vs A's; risk 1.00 unit to win 1.00 Win
Roansy Contreras Under 3.5 K's (-140); Risk 1.00 to win .71 Win
NYY/TBR Over 8 (-110) PUSH
Astros -1.5 (+100) vs Marlins; Risk 1.00 unit to win 1.00 Loss
Houston prevented us from having a great night after they blew a 4-1 lead late against Miami. Nevertheless, we end up with a little bit of profit.
Let's try to build on that today with a hefty amount of action.
Burke's Bets
Royals @ Cardinals - Game 1 of Doubleheader, 1:45 p.m. ET
In the first of two games today, Andre Pallante will be starting for the home team.
The right-hander's ERA is set at 4.00, his xERA at 3.90 and his xFIP at 4.05.
He's done well at limiting strong contact as he possesses a 4.4% barrel rate and a .122 xISO. Plus, he's allowed only one earned run throughout his past two starts.
This afternoon, he will face a Royals offense that has regressed against right-handed pitching over the past month, with an 86 wRC+, .165 ISO, and .676 OPS.
On the other side, Alec Marsh will be pitching for the road club.
Marsh's numbers have not been as promising as Pallante's.
Marsh has allowed 16 earned runs in his last four outings, with his xFIP exceeding 5.00 in three out of those four starts.
On the year, his ERA is 4.57, his xERA is 5.36 and his xFIP is 4.35.
He has struggled in limiting powerful contact as his barrel rate is over 10%, his xwOBA is .358 and his xISO is at .212.
The Cardinals have gotten better against RHP during the past month, hitting a 118 wRC+, a .162 ISO and a .764 OPS.
The pitching mismatch and stronger bats should bode well for St. Louis in this first meeting.
Play: Cardinals ML (-134); Risk 1.34 units to win 1.00
Cubs @ Orioles
Chicago is acting like they actually know how to play baseball - who would've thunk it?
The Cubbies have now won four of their last five games, which includes a win over Baltimore last night 9-2.
However, we should anticipate the celebrations coming to an end given tonight's challenging circumstances, mainly being facing Corbin Burnes.
The righty has been phenomenal this season, posting a 2.32 ERA and a 3.38 xFIP.
Burnes forces plenty of grounders (49%), and keeps the strong contact to a minimum with a 31% hard hit and 6.3% barrel rate.
Opposing Burnes will be Rookie All-Star Shota Imanaga.
The southpaw has suffered some volatility over the past month, but still holds a 3.16 ERA and a 3.69 xFIP.
What's concerning is his 10% barrel rate, his .300 xwOBA and the fact that he's going against an Orioles offense that has a 124 wRC+, a .199 ISO and a .789 OPS against lefties this season.
Furthermore, the wind appears to be blowing out towards left-center field at speeds of 18 MPH.
Baltimore's offense is much better than Chicago's and this will prove to be a tough test for Imanaga.
And after last night's loss, I'm expecting the Orioles to be ready to explode in tonight's contest.
With that being said, due to the intense winds, along with the possibility of Imanaga having a solid performance, I'm going to lay the flat runline as opposed to the run and a half for a bit of security. At BetRivers, they are offering what I consider to be an affordable price, which is -125.
Play: Orioles -1 (-125); Risk 1.25 units to win 1.00
Mariners @ Padres
Not only is San Diego dealing with several injuries, but they are also in the midst of a three-game losing streak.
They suffered their most recent loss last night against the Mariners, falling 8-3.
Tonight, they'll look to bounce back with Michael King on the mound.
The righty has put up efficient numbers, boasting a 3.51 ERA, a 3.64 FIP, a 31% hard-hit rate, and a 6.4% barrel rate.
I expect that success continues, given that Seattle has underperformed on the offensive front versus right-handed pitchers this season. They have a 95 wRC+, a .147 ISO and a .667 OPS against them.
Conversely, the Padres boast a 119 wRC+, a .155 ISO and a .755 OPS against RHP.
The righty they'll face is Bryce Miller.
The 25-year-old has a 3.84 ERA, a 4.27 xERA and a 3.90 xFIP.
His concerns stem from elevated metrics such as his home run to fly ball ratio (12%), hard-hit rate (43%), barrel rate (11.6%), as well as his xwOBA (.324) and xISO (.216).
Despite the injuries, I believe San Diego will be able to capitalize on Miller's weaknesses and find a path to victory in this outing.
Play: Padres ML (-134); Risk 1.34 units to win 1.00
Blue Jays @ Giants
San Francisco edged out the dub Tuesday night against Toronto, winning 4-3.
Tonight they'll look for a more comfortable win behind Logan Webb.
The right-hander has found his groove over his past two starts, pitching a total of 14 innings. During this stretch, he has allowed four earned runs, recorded 12 strikeouts, and given up just four walks. These performances came against formidable opponents like the Dodgers and Braves.
Overall, Webb has a 3.09 ERA and a 3.11 xFIP. His ground ball rate is over 57% and his home run to fly ball ratio has been limited to just 6.6%.
Over the past month, the Blue Jays' offense has a 96 wRC+, a .143 ISO and a .686 OPS against righties.
The Giants have been slightly better with a 100 wRC+, a .174 ISO and a .698 OPS in that span of time.
They'll get to face the veteran Chris Bassitt, who provides more opportunities for offensive success.
His xERA is 4.30, compared to his 3.43 standard earned run average. Also, his xFIP sits at 4.22, while his standard FIP resides at 3.76.
He's also walking over 3.5 batters per nine innings and has a 1.42 WHIP.
And if San Francisco can't get to Bassitt early on, they'll still have a strong chance of causing damage against a Toronto bullpen that has an ERA of 4.84 all year and 5.22 during the past month.
The Giants' ML price is floating anywhere in the range of -150 to -165. That's a bit too expensive for my liking. You could utilize the flat runline of -1 at the price of +100, however, I'm seeing the -1.5 RL price as high as +148 and that is too juicy of a number to pass up.
Play: Giants -1.5 (+148); Risk 1.00 unit to win 1.48
Pirates @ Brewers
The sole target to my handicap in this game revolves around Pittsburgh's starting pitcher, Martin Perez.
The lefty has posted some brutal stats this season: 4.85 ERA, 5.71 xERA, 4.42 xFIP, .347 BABIP, 1.56 WHIP
The contact he's been allowing has been strong, too, as he features a 44% hard hit and 9% barrel rate.
Perez already faltered against the Brewers this season back on May 15th when he allowed 11 hits, 9 ER in 5.0 IP.
In his career, he is 0-2 with an 8.31 ERA in four career games, including three starts, against Milwaukee.
The Brew Crew is hitting a 112 wRC+ and a .748 OPS against LHP over the past month.
I don't necessarily trust Milwaukee's starting pitcher in this spot and their ML is priced too high.
Rather, I'll be betting on the Brewers' team total - but specific to the first five innings of play.
The number is set at 2.5 with -105 juice to the over.
I'm expecting the home team to punish Perez like they've done in the past.
Play: Brewers F5 Total Runs Over 2.5 (-105); Risk 1.05 units to win 1.00
Nationals @ Mets
Originally when handicapping this game I was inclined to target the Mets' runline. However, after realizing that the wind will be blowing out toward left-center field at speeds of 20 MPH, I hesitated.
I don't mind backing Luis Severino, but Washington's bats have enough skill to cause some damage given the weather conditions.
The angle I really want to pursue is fading Patrick Corbin...stop me if you've seen me say that before.
Despite his brutal metrics, seemingly every time I try to fade this guy he performs like an All-Star.
Well, let's hope that isn't the case tonight.
Just like my prior bet, I'm going to utilize the F5 Total Runs bet.
The number is set at 2.5, with -140 juice to the over.
New York has a 136 wRC+, a .226 ISO and a .828 OPS against southpaws throughout the past month. And now they're going into a spot where the wind is blowing out a ton and it 's against a pitcher that has a 6.25 xERA, a 4.48 xFIP, a 13% HR/FB ratio, a .382 xwOBA and a 48% hard hit rate.
The Mets should have no issues finding success in the batters box versus Corbin.
Play: Mets F5 Total Runs Over 2.5 (-140); Risk 1.00 unit to win .71
***Updated Play***
I've decided to throw in a play on the runline after all. +105 is the best price I've seen as the day progressed and I'm going to end up putting faith in Severino with hopes he can manage well enough to limit the bats of Washington. Let's hope we can bring home both bets.
Play: Mets -1.5 (+105); Risk 1.00 unit to win 1.05
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