What's going on, everyone?
It's been a long layoff between the All-Star Break, along with my time away for a wedding. But, it's time to get back in the mix as we look forward to the second-half of the Major League Baseball Season.
Today, I've got one play to share with you, along with a couple of futures bets.
Recap From July 11th:
This was the last day that I dished out plays and our result was 2-1 (+1.78):
Reds -1.5 (+110) vs Rockies; Risk 1.00 unit to win 1.10 Win
Red Sox -1.5 (-105) vs A's; Risk 1.50 to win 1.43 Win
Austin Gomber Under 4.5 K's (-130); Risk .75 to win .58 Loss
Burke's Bets:
Cardinals @ Pirates
Following the All-Star break, St. Louis won two out of three games in Atlanta, and Pittsburgh achieved the same result against the Phillies.
Tonight, these NL Central foes will square off for the seventh time this season.
Andre Pallante will start for the road team. The right-hander brings a 4.21 ERA, 3.63 xERA and a 3.97 xFIP to the mound.
He's done very well at limiting powerful contact with his 36.5% hard hit rate, .126 xISO and 4.5% barrel rate.
Opposing him will be Mitch Keller.
The fellow righty posts a 3.46 ERA, a 3.92 xERA, and a 4.01 xFIP.
Keller has been effective in limiting strong contact as well - boasting a 37.5% hard-hit rate and a 6.7% barrel rate.
He has struggled against the Cards this year, though.
In two outings against them he's pitched 11 innings, allowed 17 hits and 9 earned runs.
More damage could be expected considering St. Louis has been more productive against right-handed pitchers since the beginning of June.
In that span they represent a 115 wRC+, a .760 OPS, a .171 ISO and a .330 wOBA.
Conversely, the Pirates feature a 94 wRC+, a .694 OPS, a .158 ISO and a .303 wOBA in that time frame.
The Cardinals also have the edge in bullpen performance, boasting a collective ERA of 3.44 compared to the home team's 4.33 mark.
We've seen the market support Pallante and his team, as they've shifted from +120 underdogs to around +110.
I agree with that assessment and believe we're receiving a solid price with the better team.
Play: Cardinals ML (+110); Risk 1.00 unit to win 1.10
Futures Bets:
Heading into the ASB, I pulled the trigger of a pair of teams and their respective World Series odds.
I won't give the entire breakdown as to why I selected these clubs, but rather a small summation...
Baltimore Orioles (+750):
The Orioles gained valuable playoff experience and faced the adversity of falling short last year. Their offense leads in several metrics and boasts enough power to carry them through October. I'm optimistic they'll bolster their starting rotation for added depth near the deadline. Assuming they do, and continue to win, I don't expect the price of +750 to be available much longer. I want to take advantage of those odds while I still can and I recommend you do the same if you haven't already.
Minnesota Twins (20/1):
The Twins' starting rotation ranks among the best in the league with Pablo Lopez, Joe Ryan, and Bailey Ober forming a formidable trio for the postseason. Minnesota's offense has excelled this season and, unlike last year, has been overcoming top-tier teams, along with finding a way to win on the road. Whether they maintain their wild card position or seize the division lead, this is a team that opponents will be wary of facing. At odds of 20/1, the potential for success is enticing, given the depth and talent across the entire roster, making a path to the World Series plausible.
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