Pirates @ Reds
Cincinnati is coming off an underwhelming three-game series against the Red Sox, dropping two out of three games.
Tonight presents a chance to flip the script against a Pittsburgh team that also struggled, losing two out of three games this past weekend. The Pirates were outscored 16-8 down in Tampa Bay.
The Reds will send right-hander Carson Spiers to the mound.
Spiers has started in just one game, but has pitched over 25 innings. He is averaging over four innings per appearance.
He made his starting debut last week against Pittsburgh, giving up four runs on six hits, all scored in the first two innings.
Spiers has an ERA of 3.20, with his xERA at 3.67, FIP at 2.40, and xFIP at 4.10.
He’s limited powerful contact with a 5% barrel rate, a .133 xISO and a hard hit percentage of 33%.
Over the past month the Pirates feature an 83 wRC+, a .141 ISO and a 25% K-rate against righties.
Bailey Falter is set to oppose him. The southpaw has a 3.73 ERA, but an xERA of 5.12.
Additionally, his xFIP is 4.53, accompanied by a high barrel rate of 9.5%, an xwOBA of .354, an xISO of .205, and a ground ball rate below 35%.
Falter is 0-2 with a 6.29 ERA in six career appearances (four starts) against the Reds.
Cincy boasts a 117 wRC+, a .159 ISO and a 19% K-rate versus left-handed pitches the past month.
This spot sets up nicely for the home team and that’s the side I’ll be riding with.
Play: Reds ML (-115); Risk 1.50 units to win 1.30
Blue Jays @ Red Sox
Boston enters tonight with a record of 9-2 in their last 11 games, while Toronto has lost their last six in a row.
Tonight, the Red Sox will have their top pitcher in Tanner Houck representing them on the bump.
Houck’s ERA is 2.14, with an xERA of 3.29 and an xFIP of 2.93. He induces a ground ball rate of over 55% and maintains a home run to fly ball ratio of just 3%.
Limiting the long ball will be crucial tonight as winds are blowing out to right field at speeds of 13 MPH.
The Blue Jays’ offense has been disappointing; over the past 30 days they have a 99 wRC+ and a .140 ISO versus RHP.
Chris Bassitt will be the starter for the road team.
The veteran right-hander has pitched his way to a 3.52 ERA, a 4.10 xERA, a 3.73 FIP and a 4.03 xFIP.
His BABIP is .326 and his WHIP resides at 1.41.
Somehow he’s managed to allow only three earned runs in his past three starts.
That should change against a Boston offense that has a 115 wRC+ and a .160 ISO the last month against right-handed pitchers.
Plus, there is a large discrepancy in both team’s relief staff. The Red Sox bullpen has an ERA of 3.41 and Toronto’s is at 4.49.
I expect Canada’s team to add another loss to their streak.
Play: Red Sox ML (-142); Risk 1.42 units to win 1.00
Rangers @ Brewers
The defending World Series Champions have hit their stride, winning their last five games and sweeping the Royals on the road.
Conversely, Milwaukee just dropped three out of four in San Diego.
The tides should turn based on this upcoming pitching matchup, though.
Freddy Peralta is set to start for the home team and he’s coming off his best outing of the year.
He threw six scoreless innings, while allowing just three hits on the road against the Angels.
His underlying metrics indicate that quality starts were imminent, and tonight should not lead us to believe otherwise.
Peralta’s ERA is 4.06, but his xERA is 3.73, and then his FIP is listed at 3.62, though his xFIP is 3.37.
He’s striking out over 11 batters per nine innings, has a 34.5% hard hit rate and a SIERA of 3.17.
On the other side, Rangers’ pitcher Michael Lorenzen appears due for regression.
He’s allowed just seven earned runs in his past five starts, his ERA is 3.00 and his FIP is 4.90.
However, his xERA is 4.70, and his xFIP is 4.61. He's averaging nearly four walks per nine innings, with a 13% HR/FB ratio and a 4.89 SIERA.
Milwaukee’s offense has a 108 wRC+ in comparison to Texas’ 68 wRC+ against righties the past month.
Furthermore, the Brewers' bullpen boasts an ERA of 3.30, whereas the Rangers' bullpen stands at 4.56.
The moneyline is a bit too expensive so instead I'll be utilizing the runline. BetRivers has what I consider a solid price on the flat one - that's why I'll be choosing to play.
Let’s hope for another quality outing from Peralta and for Milwaukee to put some damage on Lorenzen.
Play: Brewers -1 (-121); Risk 1.21 units to win 1.00
Luis Medina Strikeouts - 4.5
Through four starts and 21 innings of work, the 25-year-old has managed a 4.71 ERA and a 5.67 xFIP.
He is striking out 5.6 and walking 4.3 batters per nine innings. He has an 8.3% SwStr%, which represents the percentage of strikes that were swung at and missed. Also, his contact percentage is at 83%. He is bottom-tier in both of those respective categories.
He has eclipsed 4.5 K’s in only one outing - which was his first at Atlanta where he racked up six.
Otherwise he struck out one versus Toronto and three against both Minnesota and Kansas City.
Tonight, he’ll face the Los Angeles Angels, who hold a strikeout rate of 23.3% against right-handed pitchers.
While that rate is higher than I'd prefer, the focus here is on the potential for Medina to struggle overall. The metrics strongly suggest this possibility, which could limit both the duration of his start and the number of strikeouts he accumulates.
Play: Luis Medina Under 4.5 K’s (-130); Risk 1.30 unit to win 1.00
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