Tuesday Recap:
0-1, (-1.05): Yankees/Mets Over 9 (-105); Risk 1.05 units to win 1.00 Loss
Burke's Bets
I didn't have enough time to release my analysis on this play due to the earlier start time in Pittsburgh, but this was my first pick of the day:
Astros @ A's
Somehow, someway, Houston is on the verge of being swept in a three-game series against the Athletics.
They'll look to avoid that scenario with Hunter Brown on the mound.
The young right-hander has managed a 4.14 ERA, 3.46 xERA, 4.10 FIP and a 3.71 xFIP this season.
He's done well at forcing hitters into grounders (46.4% GB) and limits strong contact with his 4.8% barrel rate, .120 xISO and 32% hard hit rate.
JP Sears will be starting for Oakland.
The lefty features a 4.49 ERA, a 4.64 xERA, a 4.77 FIP and a 4.93 xFIP.
Unlike Brown, his underlying metrics indicate regression.
Sears' ground ball rate sits at 37%, with his xwOBA at .337 and xISO at .209.
Plus, his barrel rate is alarming at 10%.
Both of these lineups have been producing against right-handed pitchers. However, considering the pitching matchup and the circumstances with the stronger team trying to avoid the sweep, I gravitate towards the visiting team.
Play: Astros ML (-154); Risk 1.54 units to win 1.00
D'Backs @ Royals
Game three of this series features a rubber match between Arizona, with Ryne Nelson pitching, and Kansas City, with Michael Wacha taking the mound.
Nelson has been an arm I've faded various times this year and will continue to do so tonight.
His 4.78 ERA and 4.30 xFIP don't inspire much confidence, nor does his .323 BABIP.
Given these metrics and seeing that he's allowed only six earned runs throughout his past four starts, it can be projected that he's due for regression.
Although, the Royals have been below-average versus RHP with a 97 wRC+, .164 ISO and a .718 OPS. However, I believe they can do enough offensively to support their pitcher.
And their pitcher has a 3.55 ERA and 3.97 xFIP this season. Plus, Wacha's maintained a steady BABIP of .289, home run to fly ball ratio of 8.5%, hard hit rate of 33.7% and has surrendered just six earned runs throughout his last five starts.
Furthermore, KC's bullpen has stepped up as of late with a 3.73 ERA since June 1st. Conversely, the Royals bullpen ERA has dipped to 4.24 in that span.
I'll back to home team to close out this series tonight.
Play: Royals ML (-115); Risk 1.15 units to win 1.00
White Sox @ Rangers
Nathan Eovaldi against Chris Flexen...pick your poison.
Seems like a fairly obvious choice to me.
Flexen represents a 5.22 ERA, 5.10 xFIP, and a .341 xwOBA. He's walking over 3.5 batters per nine innings, has a low ground ball rate of 36% and is coming off a seven earned run performance at Kansas City.
While the Rangers' bats have struggled against RHP (91 wRC+, .142 ISO, .681 OPS), this matchup presents a perfect spot to increase those stats.
As we look at Eovaldi, it's apparent that he's a trustworthy pitcher; especially against a White Sox offense that sits dead last in wRC+ against righties (68).
The veteran right-hander has a 3.36 ERA, a 3.44 xFIP and a .139 xISO.
Also, his BABIP sits at .258, his ground ball rate at 49%, his WHIP at 1.07 and his barrel rate at 7%.
He's coming off one of his worst outings of the year where he allowed 6 ER, 8 hits, 3 HR versus Baltimore.
There's no better club to face than the White Sox to help a pitcher reclaim his mojo and bounce back into a rhythm.
Play: Rangers -1.5 (-118); Risk 2.36 units to win 2.00
Player Prop: Griffin Canning Strikeouts - Under 5.5 (-131)
Understandably so, Canning's strikeout prop is on the higher side because of the Seattle Mariners' strikeout issues.
They currently have the highest K-rate in Major League Baseball, with a 28.7% strikeout rate against right-handed pitchers.
While that is indeed atrocious, I don't believe it warrants backing Canning to eclipse 5.5.
That's a feat he's accomplished only once throughout 20 starts this season.
Plus, I'm not sure that he'll make it deep in this contest.
The Mariners are attempting to avoid a three-game sweep and have a strong chance to cause damage against the struggling Canning.
The right-hander holds a 5.20 ERA, 4.89 xERA, 5.34 FIP and a 4.89 xFIP.
His HR/FB is at 14%, his WHIP at 1.42, his xWOBA at .345 and his strikeout to walk ratio is beyond concerning at 7.5%.
In his last four starts, he's allowed 16 earned runs, and his xFIP has exceeded 5.00 in three out of those four outings.
He's not typically a strikeout threat and I'm not confident that he'll last long enough to get him close to that mark anyways.
Play: Griffin Canning Under 5.5 K's (-131); Risk 1.31 units to win 1.00
*ADDED PLAY*
Game 2 - Reds @ Braves
As I'm writing this, Atlanta is currently losing the first spot in this doubleheader 9-4 heading into the 7th inning.
In today's second game between these clubs, AL Cy Young favorite Chris Sale is scheduled to start.
The veteran southpaw has a 2.70 ERA, 2.51 xFIP, strikeout to walk ratio of 27% and a 0.95 WHIP.
Cincy has struggled against lefties this season with a 93 wRC+, .697 OPS and a .140 ISO.
Conversely, Nick Martinez appears to be the starter for the Reds.
The 33-year-old right-hander has started in just five games, while accumulating a total of 72 IP. He's been utilized more so in the relief role and that could potentially be the strategy for this meeting, too.
He brings a 3.88 ERA and 3.96 xFIP to the table.
The Braves are hitting a 93 wRC+, a .690 OPS and a .159 ISO versus RHP this year.
This handicap has more to do with the dominance of Sale and the advantages most teams have in the second spot of a doubleheader after dropping the first.
Let's hope that does end up favoring Atlanta.
Play: Braves -1.5 (+126); Risk 1.00 unit to win 1.26
Comments