I hope everyone enjoyed their weekend and Father's Day festivities! We've got a new week to look ahead to on the diamond. Yesterday we ended with another 1-1 effort, let's look to break over .500 on today's card.
Weather Report
Padres @ Phillies, 6:40 p.m. ET
Winds blowing out to left-center field around 10-11 MPH
Giants @ Cubs, 7:05 p.m. ET
Winds blowing out to left-center field as high as 14.5 MPH
Tigers @ Braves, 7:20 p.m. ET
Winds blowing in from left-center field around 11 MPH
Dodgers @ Rockies, 7:40 p.m. ET
Winds blowing out to right field at speeds of 15 MPH
On the Move
Odds Via 12:45 p.m. ET
Giants @ Cubs
SuperBook Opened: CHC (-122) | SFG (+112) | Total: 9.5
SuperBook Currently: CHC (-110) | SFG (EV) | Total: 10
Reds @ Pirates
Circa Opened: PIT (-195) | CIN (+176)
Circa Currently: PIT (-185) | CIN (+168)
Padres @ Phillies
SuperBook Opened: PHI (-165) | SD (+150) | Total: 9
SuperBook Currently: PHI (-180) | SD (+165) | Total: 9.5
Dodgers @ Rockies
Circa Opened: LAD (-180) | COL (+163) | Total: 11.5
Circa Currently: LAD (-159) | COL (+145) | Total: 12
Red Sox @ Blue Jays
SuperBook Opened: TOR (-116) | BOS (+106)
SuperBook Currently: TOR (-125) | BOS (+115)
Pitching Projections
On the Rise:
Christopher Sanchez (LHP) vs Padres
Sanchez:
3.07 ERA, 3.83 xERA, 2.58 FIP, 3.14 xFIP
59.5% GB, 2.7% HR/FB, 6.0% Barrel, .92 .xISO
The southpaw is coming off his shortest outing of the season, going 4.0 IP, allowing 7 hits and 4 ER @ Boston. Redemption is looming against a Padres offense that is below-average versus lefties, ranking 18th in wRC+ (96) and 21st in ISO (.132).
Braxton Garrett (LHP) vs Cardinals
Garrett:
6.10 ERA, 4.28 xERA, 3.89 FIP, 3.59 xFIP
52.5% GB, 1.16 BB/9, 1.26 WHIP, 3.41 SIERA
Garrett has only thrown 31 innings this season and there have been some rocky moments. However, his xERA and xFIP indicate better performances lie ahead and against a Cardinals offense that ranks 29th in wRC+ (77) and 28th in ISO (.115) against LHP, this could certainly be one of them.
Nick Pivetta @ Blue Jays
Pivetta:
3.88 ERA, 3.62 xERA, 3.86 FIP, 3.24 xFIP
1.08 WHIP, 38% Hard hit, 3.16 SIERA
The Red Sox right-hander is coming off a poor start versus Philadelphia. He allowed 6 hits, 4 ER, 4 BB, 4 K’s in 4 IP. He’ll look for a resurgence against a Toronto lineup that is 24th in ISO (.112) and 23rd in wRC+ (90) against RHP since June 1st.
Max Fried vs Tigers
Fried:
3.20 ERA, 3.37 xERA, 3.39 FIP, 3.23 xFIP
3.42 SIERA, 1.06 WHIP, .252 BABIP
Fried has been exceptional at limiting powerful contact. His hard hit percentage shows 30.6%, his barrel rate is 5.1% and his xISO is .108. Detroit ranks 27th in wRC+ (84) and 25th in ISO (.124) versus LHP. Fried always has high expectations, but it feels noteworthy to display just how much he could potentially dominate this evening.
Due for Decline:
Javier Assad vs Giants
Assad:
2.81 ERA, 4.08 xERA, 3.95 FIP, 4.08 xFIP
3.7 BB/9, 4.12 SIERA, 10% HR/FB, .320 xwOBA
Assad’s expected ERA and FIP project struggles lie ahead. The wind will be blowing out at the Friendly Confines and the right-hander is no stranger to allowing the long ball. Assad has surrendered 15 runs in his last five games and may be tested against this Giants lineup.
Burke’s Bets
Padres @ Phillies
Both of these clubs are eager to rejoin the winning column. San Diego suffered a three-game sweep at the hands of the Mets, and the Phillies have lost their last 4/5.
Philadelphia's starting pitcher, Sanchez, should be set up nicely in this particular matchup as noted above.
Sanchez:
3.07 ERA, 3.83 xERA, 2.58 FIP, 3.14 xFIP
59.5% GB, 2.7% HR/FB, 6.0% Barrel, .92 .xISO
The southpaw is coming off his shortest outing of the season, going 4.0 IP, allowing 7 hits and 4 ER @ Boston. Redemption is looming against a Padres offense that is below-average versus lefties, ranking 18th in wRC+ (96) and 21st in ISO (.132).
Opposing the home team will be right-hander Randy Vasquez.
He’s pitched in 38.1 innings, has a 4.93 ERA, a 5.95 xERA, .341 batting average of balls in play and is allowing almost two home runs per nine innings pitched.
His xwOBA is very high at .377 and his xISO is listed at .207.
Despite their recent struggles, the Phillies are still a top-10 lineup in wRC+ (105) and ISO (.153) against right-handed pitchers.
The market has shown some support for the NL East representative and I am going to follow suit.
Play: Phillies -1.5 (+115); Risk 1.00 unit to win 1.15
Mets @ Rangers
Arguably the biggest story in baseball is how the New York Metropolitans are 5-0 since Grimace threw out the first pitch last Wednesday.
Yes, this is a thing.
The bad news for the Mets is they will be playing their first road game since the potato shaped, purple figure threw a baseball 60 feet.
I’m expecting this peculiar mojo to reach its conclusion tonight.
Let’s get into the actual breakdown of why I like Texas.
Their lineup will be facing lefty David Peterson.
His 4.32 ERA, 5.65 xERA and 4.88 xFIP does not make his side enticing.
Granted, he’s only pitched 16.2 innings, but the numbers aren’t great.
The Rangers' offense started off underwhelming, but there have been improvements since the beginning of June. Against left-handed pitchers, their wRC+ has increased to 109, their wOBA to .324, and their OPS to .730.
The fact they just got swept in three games at Seattle also leads me to believe they’ll be motivated for this meeting.
Jon Gray gets the nod for Texas. Some of his metrics are a bit worrisome, too.
His ERA is 2.17, but his expected ERA is 4.19. However, his xFIP does reside at 3.52, he’s allowing just .43 home runs per nine innings and has an xISO of .153.
Situationally speaking, I believe this spot favors the home team and will be siding in that direction.
Play: Rangers ML (-124); Risk 1.24 units to win 1.00
Cardinals @ Marlins
When I bet on unders in baseball game totals, I usually choose the first five innings over full games. This is because most of my analysis focuses on the starting pitchers and, ideally, they pitch at least five innings. This way, I avoid concerns about unpredictable bullpens affecting the outcome.
Tonight I’ll be making an exception and utilizing the full nine innings.
The first five innings total is as low as 3.5, while the full game total is listed at 7.5.
Earlier I explained why I believe Marlins’ pitcher Braxton Garrett could be primed for a quality outing:
Garrett:
6.10 ERA, 4.28 xERA, 3.89 FIP, 3.59 xFIP
52.5% GB, 1.16 BB/9, 1.26 WHIP, 3.41 SIERA
Garrett has only thrown 31 innings this season and there have been some rocky outings. However, his xERA and xFIP indicate better performances lie ahead and against a Cardinals offense that ranks 29th in wRC+ (77) and 28th in ISO (115) against LHP, this could certainly be one of them.
Taking a look at the other side - one of the better pitchers in Major League Baseball will be starting for the road team.
Sonny Gray takes the mound with a 3.01 ERA, 3.13 xERA, and 2.59 xFIP. He averages nearly 12 strikeouts and just 2.6 walks per nine innings. His SIERA is 2.76, with an xwOBA of .283 and an xISO of .149.
Miami's offense has been virtually nonexistent this season, with an ISO of .126 (28th) and a wRC+ of 86 (27th) against right-handed pitchers.
Let’s hope for a boring game down in South Beach.
Play: MIA/STL Total Under 7.5 (-124); Risk 1.00 unit to win .81
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