Hello, everyone! I hope you were able to enjoy the Fourth of July, along with an extended weekend.
Apologies for being absent throughout the past week - I had a wedding and was also out of town for Independence Day, but it’s good to be back and ready to fire on some MLB action.
The last day I released an article was Friday, June 28th. We went 2-1 on the slate (+.49):
Randy Vasquez Under 4.5 K's (-162); Risk 1.00 units to win .62 Win
KC/CLE Over 9.5 (-105); Risk 1.05 units to win 1.00 Win
ARI TT Over 4.5 (-113); Risk 1.13 units to win 1.00 Loss
We capped off that week going 10-3 (+6.62). Let’s aim for more profit:
On the Move:
Mets @ Pirates
SuperBook Opened: PIT (-109) | NYM (-101)
SuperBook Currently: PIT (-119) | NYM (+109)
Rockies @ Reds
Circa Opened: CIN (-188) | COL (+170)
Circa Currently: CIN (-150) | COL (+137)
Pitching Projections:
On the Rise:
Mitch Keller vs Mets
Keller:
3.48 ERA, 3.92 xERA, 3.64 FIP, 3.98 xFIP
37% Hard Hit, 6.4% Barrel Rate
The right-hander will face one of the hotter offenses of the past month. Despite this, the market supports Keller, which is understandable. His expected metrics exceed his standard ones but remain respectable. He has also been effective at limiting powerful contact. Additionally, Christian Scott is pitching for the road team and is considered an unknown commodity. It's an early start (12:35 p.m. ET) and the fourth game of the series, with the Mets having won two out of three. This situation could lead to regression for New York.
Ryan Feltner (RHP) @ Reds
Feltner:
5.60 ERA, 4.14 xERA, 4.12 FIP, 4.01 xFIP
46% GB, 6% Barrel Rate, 37% Hard Hit
While his numbers may seem daunting initially, there's potential for success if he's positioned correctly, considering his expected statistics. The market favors the right-hander, who has conceded only three earned runs in his last two appearances. Cincinnati, having been swept in three games at home by the Tigers, will be motivated to perform strongly. The question remains whether Feltner can overcome that.
Due for Decline:
Andrew Abbott (LHP) vs Rockies
Abbott:
3.28 ERA, 3.50 xERA, 4.95 FIP, 4.94 xFIP
33.6% GB, 4.86 SIERA, 8% Barrel Rate
The Reds' left-hander has troubling underlying metrics, despite giving up only nine earned runs in his last five starts. During this period, four out of five outings saw Abbott's xFIP exceed 5.60. He is issuing over three walks and surrendering more than one home run per nine innings pitched.
Jon Gray @ Angels
Gray:
3.92 ERA, 4.65 xERA, 3.52 FIP, 4.07 xFIP
.337 xwOBA, 44.6% Hard Hit, 9.6% Barrel Rate
Los Angeles' offense has strengthened over the past month, displaying a 104 wRC+ and a .318 wOBA against right-handed pitching. Gray might be considered overvalued in this matchup. He has shown extreme volatility, which is reflected in his recent performances. In his last two starts, he has given up a total of 11 runs, with xFIPs of 6.58 and 7.16, respectively.
Burke’s Bets
Mets @ Pirates
This early start should benefit the home team, along with the starting pitcher that will be representing them:
Keller:
3.48 ERA, 3.92 xERA, 3.64 FIP, 3.98 xFIP
37% Hard Hit, 6.4% Barrel Rate
The right-hander will face one of the hotter offenses of the past month. Despite this, the market supports Keller, which is understandable. His expected metrics exceed his standard ones but remain respectable. He has also been effective at limiting powerful contact. Additionally, Christian Scott is pitching for the road team and is considered an unknown commodity. It's an early start (12:35 p.m. ET) and the fourth game of the series, with the Mets having won two out of three. This situation could lead to regression for New York.
The aforementioned Scott has pitched 33.1 innings this season and features a 4.32 ERA and a 4.37 xFIP. He’s allowed six earned runs over his past two starts and his xFIP resulted in being over 5.00 in both.
Within a narrow sample size of the past week, the Pirates have a 128 wRC+, a .813 OPS and a .233 ISO against right-handed pitching.
Conversely, the Mets have a 66 wRC+, a .580 OPS and a .104 ISO in that span.
Again, it’s a short time frame - but seeing their bats improve and knowing they have the better pitcher leads me to believe that Pittsburgh is the right side in this meeting.
Play: Pirates ML (-118); Risk 1.18 units to win 1.00
Andrew Abbott Strikeouts - 5.5
As explained above, the southpaw may be due for a rough outing:
Abbott:
3.28 ERA, 3.50 xERA, 4.95 FIP, 4.94 xFIP
33.6% GB, 4.86 SIERA, 8% Barrel Rate
The Reds' left-hander has troubling underlying metrics, despite giving up only nine earned runs in his last five starts. During this period, four out of five outings saw Abbott's xFIP exceed 5.60. He is issuing over three walks and surrendering more than one home run per nine innings pitched.
He has a very low strikeout to walk ratio of 9.5% and averages only 4.4 K’s per outing.
Abbott has failed to eclipse 5.5 strikeouts in 12 out of 17 starts this season.
The Rockies offense can be infuriating, considering they have the fourth-highest K-rate in MLB at 25.2%, but their numbers have improved as of late.
Over the past month, not only has their strikeout rate dipped to 23%, but their wRC+ has gone to 85, their OPS to .719, their ISO to .163 and their wOBA to .311.
It's not great, but for Colorado it's a step in the right direction. Even if they struggle to hit, let's hope they can at least minimize strikeouts.
5.5 appears too high and the fact we’re getting plus money to the under makes it too appealing to pass up.
Play: Andrew Abbott Under 5.5 K’s (+115); Risk 1.00 unit to win 1.15
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