Happy Thursday and happy opening day of the Masters! Hopefully you're able to get some quality viewing time of Augusta today.
Speaking of the tournament, as I've I've mentioned over the past couple of days on the website and podcast - I've recently partnered with the sports betting app "Rithmm." And they just introduced their golf product! It features AI-backed golf picks, which I'll be using to bet more intelligently on this tournament and beyond.
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Let's transition toward the diamond where we're coming off of a nice turnaround last evening with a 2-0 effort!
Jordan Wicks came through on the bump, yet again, and we were able to cash San Francisco -0.5 on the first five runline.
Then, Kyle Hendricks did exactly what I expected him to do - which was implode. He surrendered 7 runs on 9 hits, and gave up two homers. I'm telling you guys, hop on the fade Hendricks train while you still can. The Padres went on to win 10-2 and we cashed our -135 moneyline ticket to solidify the positive evening.
Today, I've only got one play. Let's get to it...
2:35pm ET - A's @ Rangers
We've got another rubber match to handicap as Oakland is somehow and someway looking to potentially capture the series against the defending World Series champions.
Southpaw JP Sears will look to be the guy to put them in the position to do so.
Though, it doesn't appear as if he will provide them the best chance based on what we've witnessed from him thus far.
In two starts, he's thrown over nine innings, has a 8.68 ERA and an xFIP of 7.15.
He has walked more batters (3) than he's struck out (2).
I'm not so sure we can attribute his struggles to being a fluke either. In 2023, Sears had a 4.54 ERA and a 5.10 xFIP.
Opposing him will be the right-hander Jon Gray.
Now Gray is in a similar boat. He has struggled to begin his year.
He's pitched 7.1 innings, accumulated an ERA of 6.14 and an xFIP of 6.64.
He, too, has walked more batters (6) than he's struck out (5).
However, he displayed some promising signs in his last outing, having allowed just five hits and no earned runs against the Astros.
And he will face an A's lineup that not only has very limited history against him, but also limited success vs RHP this season as they rank 20th in wRC+.
Conversely, the Rangers do have experience against Sears, and are also hitting exceptionally well against lefties, as they rank 2nd in wRC+ versus those arms.
We haven't seen the moneyline price alter too much throughout the betting market, but we have seen support with the runline in favor of the home team.
That's the angle I'm approaching. But, I'm going to implement the flat -1, rather than -1.5. I'm not doing that because we've gotten burned a couple of times with games falling on 1 after our teams blew significant leads, but more so because of the possibility that Gray could struggle to find the zone. And if that's the case, then there is a strong chance that Texas could be playing from behind, which would make covering the -1.5 RL much more difficult.
Play: Rangers -1 (-130); Risk 1.30 units to win 1.00
MLB Record: 14-12-1 (+1.22)
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