Tuesday Night Recap:
Well, we fell short of a run last night in Atlanta. The Braves bats did not come alive as much as I expected and somehow Daniel Vogelbach, in the top of the sixth with two outs, was the cause of our demise as he jacked a two-run homer after Elder exited the game. Oh, and let's not forget, Michael Harris may have produced one of the worst performances of all time for someone who was having his own bobblehead night. He had 1st and 3rd with one out and pulled a Javy Baez by swinging at strike three in the opposite batter's box. And then with a chance to add an insurance run and cover our run line in the bottom of the eighth, what do you think he did? That's right, you guessed it - struck the hell out without even giving us a chance. Unfortunate, but those are the risks you take when betting run lines.
Wednesday Night Preview
7:20pm ET - Mets @ Braves
If the Braves didn't leave enough of a sour taste in your mouth from falling short last night, perhaps you have enough confidence to back them this evening.
Jose Quintana (1-4, 3.03 ERA) is taking the bump for the Mets tonight and despite his ERA looking sturdy, along with posting a quality start in each of his past five, we're seeing an xFIP of 5.08. So clearly the indication is that there should be some sizable regression coming for the southpaw. And it would make sense for it to come against the Braves, who Quintana owns a 2-4 record and a 6.49 ERA against in seven career starts.
Since the beginning of this month, the Braves, vs lefties, are 3rd in wOBA (.401) and 4th in wRC+ (151).
An interesting angle to consider would be something with walks. Since the start of August, the Braves, vs LHP, have the highest walk rate in MLB (13.6%). And if you look at some of Quintana's weaknesses, it's hard to ignore his higher base on ball numbers (3.53 BB per 9 innings). And if you think that less than a month's sample size is not enough, well, since the All-Star Break, Brian Snitker's lineup is 2nd in walk rate vs lefties (11.5%).
The last two games Quintana has walked seven batters total, and one of those games was against Atlanta. In that outing, Quintana went 6.0 IP, allowed 4 hits and just 1 ER. But, he did walk three batters.
DraftKings appears to have the best odds on this prop: Over 2.5 Walks (+120).
As for looking on a side with the Braves, I've been hesitant most of the day. But, after seeing both lineup cards I am going to add a play on Atlanta. I recognize that the Mets have a ton of familiarity against Morton - and that was a cause for my timidness. However, he does pitch better at home and this would be a nice close out spot to capture the series win against their division foe. Plus, he just faced New York on August 11th, on the road, and went five shutout innings on the way to a 7-0 Atlanta win.
Let's hope the Braves don't do us dirty this time.
Plays:
Jose Quintana Over 2.5 Walks (+120)
Braves -1.5 (+104)
4:10pm ET - Marlins @ Padres
Today's rubber match will come down to starters Sandy Alcantara (6-10, 4.11 ERA) and Seth Lugo (4-6, 3.92).
While Alcantara has certainly not been true to his Cy Young form we witnessed last season, he has picked up the slack as of late. He has thrown two complete games in his past five starts and is 3-1 with a 2.13 ERA in that span. Currently, his xFIP is listed at 3.82, so we should expect his quality starts to continue.
Alcantara has faced this Padres offense once this season (6.1 IP, 5 H, 4 ER) and a few of the big bats in their lineup have done damage against him. However, overall, San Diego's hitters have continued to fall short of expectations. Since the All-Star Break the Padres, against righties, rank 21st in OPS (.716), 19th in wOBA (.312) and 17th in wRC+ (99).
As for the Marlins offense, well, this has been a unit that I have been counting, and betting, on to fail in the back half of this season. And for the most part, it has come to fruition. Miami, since the ASB, against RHP ranks 25th in OPS (.699), 25th in wOBA (.301) and 23rd in wRC+ (90).
Lugo looks to take advantage of this mediocre Marlins offense today; and I expect him to do just that. His xFIP (3.59) is decently lower than his ERA (3.92), which is always a good sign. His SIERA is listed at 3.80 and he has pitched much better at Petco Park this season.
The only guy in the Marlins lineup that has dome some damage vs Lugo is Jacob Stallings: 4 AB, 1 HR, .250 AVG.
But, Stallings should probably be placed toward the bottom of the order. And the reason that is significant here is because I'm looking to be the No run in the 1st inning.
When I handicap these Yes/No run 1st inning bets, I always consider the pitcher's numbers the first time they go through the order. So here are the stats for both starters in that regard:
Lugo: .214 AVG / 1.02 WHIP / .266 BABIP / 87.2% LOB / 3.39 xFIP
Alcantara - .280 AVG / 1.26 WHIP / .329 BABIP / 82.5% LOB / 3.47 xFIP
You can see that Lugo has had a tad more success early on. However, Alcantara's xFIP is strong, he's limiting the damage and we know he's been progressing in his last five starts.
Let's hope with the wind blowing in slightly, these lineups getting cold and these pitchers warming up, that we can get a goose egg in the first inning.
Play: No Run 1st Inning (-124)
MLB Record: 68-61-1 (-2.57)
Futures Pending:
Logan Webb NL Cy Young (33/1)
Brewers Under 85.5 Wins (-115)
Blue Jays (20/1) to Win World Series
Marlins to Miss Playoffs (-140)
Spencer Strider 8/1 to Win NL Cy Young
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