Thursday Recap:
The rough week continues after falling 1-2 (-1.1) last night:
A's/Angels Over 9 (-120); Risk 1.20 units to win 1.00 Win
Gavin Williams Under 5.5 K's (-110); Risk 1.10 units to win 1.00 Loss
Luis Severino Under 5.5 K's (-135); Risk 1.00 unit to win .74 Loss
As of now, I've got just two plays throughout today's board - let's dive in...
Burke's Bets
Cubs @ Royals
I'm no stranger to criticizing Kyle Hendricks. While many, especially Cubs fans, cling to the nostalgia of his glory days in 2016, I have been highlighting his struggles and taking advantage of them for the past several years.
And I will be looking to do similarly today.
To be fair, there have been times this season where he's exceeded expectations and has held his own. However, it doesn't take much to impress people when your ERA is currently at 6.69, and your FIP is at 5.43.
Giving up the long ball has always been his Achilles' heel, and this year is no exception. Hendricks has an 18% home run-to-fly ball ratio, which translates to 1.9 home runs per nine innings pitched.
Furthermore, he has a 1.50 WHIP, an 8.5% strikeout-to-walk-ratio and a .349 xwOBA.
This past month against right-handed pitching, the Royals are hitting a 115 wRC+, a .787 OPS and a .179 ISO.
Kansas City's starting pitcher will be Brady Singer.
Singer has a strong ERA of 3.00 and an xFIP of 3.55; however, his xERA raises concerns, sitting at 4.80.
Nevertheless, it's still easy to remain confident in the right-hander due to his low BABIP (.288), high ground ball rate (49.4%), and above-average left-on-base percentage (82.4%).
Also, facing a struggling offense in the Cubbies doesn't hurt.
This season, Chicago is hitting a 96 wRC+, .687 OPS and a .142 ISO versus RHP.
After Wednesday night's brutal beat at home to the Diamondbacks - the Royals should be itching to get back into the winning column and will have a great opportunity to do so against Hendricks and company.
Play: Royals ML (-140); Risk 2.00 units to win 1.43
Marlins @ Brewers
Milwaukee lost their top hitter, Christian Yelich, to the 10-day injured list on Wednesday due to lower back inflammation. It appears this injury may keep him sidelined for more than just 10 days.
While this is detrimental for the team's long-term prospects, I don't believe it will affect them in tonight's affair.
The Brewers lineup should still be able to take advantage of Trevor Rogers.
The southpaw features a 4.59 ERA, a 4.74 xERA, a 4.36 FIP and a 4.50 xFIP.
He's walking over four batters per nine innings, has a .340 xwOBA, a 1.55 WHIP and a 43.3% hard hit rate.
Milwaukee has crushed lefties over the past month with their 140 wRC+, .854 OPS and .167 ISO.
Oddly enough, despite what his metrics indicate, Rogers has allowed more than two earned runs only once throughout his past eight starts.
Hopefully that alters this evening.
Opposing Rogers will be right-hander Freddy Peralta.
Peralta's numbers look much better than Rogers': 3.88 ERA, 3.54 xERA, 3.55 FIP, 3.43 xFIP
Plus, Peralta's strikeout-to-walk-ratio is 22%, his WHIP is 1.17 and his hard hit percentage sits at 36%.
Miami is hitting a 84 wRC+, .659 OPS and a .130 ISO against RHP this season.
Let's look for the Brew Crew to take advantage of the weaker team and pitcher.
Play: Brewers -1.5 (-105); Risk 1.50 units to win 1.43
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