The most anticipated game of week 11 is finally here. We get to witness a rematch of Super Bowl 57, where Patrick Mahomes and company came out on top against Jalen Hurts and the Eagles 38-35. The consensus betting market lists Kansas City as a 2.5-point favorite, with the total now down to 45.5.
Both of these teams are coming off their bye-week; most recently, overseas, the Chiefs beat the Dolphins (21-14) and the Eagles are a riding a three-game win streak after overcoming their division foe, Dallas, a couple weeks ago.
What’s the biggest difference between these teams? To me, I’d say how each respective offense is conducted.
Philadelphia, if possible, will run the ball as much as they can. They have the 5th highest rush rate in the NFL (41%). As for Kansas City - they are throwing the ball at a 67% clip, which is the 3rd highest.
Interestingly enough, KC’s weaker part of their defense is defending the ground attack as they rank 21st in DVOA run defense and allow 4.5 yards per rush attempt (29th). And, then, Philly’s defensive concerns reside in the air, as they rank 25th in DVOA pass defense and 17th in drop back EPA.
So which team has the advantage?
I tend to lean with the Chiefs. Yes, the Eagles may control the ground game for a certain period of time and have some success, however, at some point you’re going to have to produce a viable passing game if you want to overcome Mahomes. And that may be a difficult task for Jalen Hurts, who will be facing a KC pass defense that is 2nd in both EPA and success rate and allowing just 9 yards per completion, which ranks 3rd best in the league.
Some other edges reside in the yards per play allowed category. KC is allowing 4.8 YPP this season and Philly is allowing 5.3, but - over the last three games - that number has risen to 6.0.
Furthermore, in terms of red zone success - Kansas City has been slightly better. Offensively, these two squads are fairly even, however, on the defensive side the Eagles are allowing opponents to score a TD in the red zone at a rate of 64.3% whereas the Chiefs are doing so at just 54.2%.
And, finally, the injury report. Philly comes into this spot a tad bit banged up. They will be missing Tight End Dallas Goedert, Defensive End Derek Barnett, Safety Justin Evans, and Linebacker Nakobe Dean. Conversely, KC looks to be the healthiest they have been all year.
Those slight edges, along with the quarterback and home field advantage all favor Andy Reid’s squad. And I’m looking to back that side outright.
Play: Chiefs Moneyline (-142); risk 1.42 units to win 1.00
NFL Record: 21-19-1 (+0.19)
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