Another fascinating game for the Cowboys will occur this Sunday as they head to South Beach to take on the Dolphins.
Dallas is coming off a blowout loss at Buffalo (31-10), whereas Miami is feeling good after their dominating performance against the Jets (30-0).
In the Cowboys’ last matchup against the Bills, here on the website, I dished out Buffalo moneyline. There were a multitude of reasons why I did so, but, mainly, it’s because of how weak Dallas has looked on the road and, especially, against very good opponents in that particular situation.
Will that hold true in this matchup against the Dolphins? Well, let’s dive into it.
While digging into these two teams, I found some interesting metrics. Mainly, on the defensive side of the ball. Let’s take a look at how these teams stack up defensively, in terms of EPA/Play and success rate throughout the course of the season.
Entire Season:
Miami is 4th in EPA/Play and 10th in Success Rate
Dallas is 6th in EPA/Play and 21st in Success Rate
Since Week 7 (Defensively):
Miami is 1st in EPA/Play and 2nd in Success Rate
Dallas is 15th in EPA/Play and 26th in Success Rate
Since Week 10 (Defensively):
Miami is 1st in EPA/Play and 1st in Success Rate
Dallas 13th in EPA/Play and 21st in Success Rate
Isn’t that somewhat surprising? Based on how the media drools over and props up this Cowboys defense - you would think they were the best by far in the NFL. But, shockingly, they are not. And not only that, but they are fairly behind their upcoming opponent (Miami) in those defensive categories.
Now do I believe that the Dolphins are significantly better on the defensive side of the ball? No, not significantly. But, I do believe they are a better defense than most people give them credit for and have progressed, while the opposite can be said for Dallas.
Here are some other stats on that side of the ball:
Yards per Completion Allowed:
Miami allowing 9.1 YPC
Dallas allowing 10.1 YPC (13 over their L3 games)
Yards per Rush Attempt Allowed:
Miami allowing 3.7 yards per rush (3.5 over their L3 games)
Dallas allowing 4.3 yards per rush (4.7 over their L3 games)
Yards per Play Allowed:
Miami allows 4.8 YPP (4.2 over their L3 games)
Dallas allows 4.9 YPP (6.0 over their L3 games)
When I display the stats that show what has occurred over these teams’ last three games, it is important to understand who their opponents were.
The Cowboys, in their last three spots, played on the road against the Bills, and then had two home games vs the Eagles and Seahawks.
The Dolphins played the Jets and Titans at home, and then faced the Commanders on the road.
So, sure, it makes sense that Miami’s numbers would improve against those weaker offenses. But, still - on the season and deeper than just their last three games - we have seen their defense improve consistently.
What’s concerning for the Cowboys is that they have gotten worse and look very mediocre when they play against top offenses, and we have witnessed that over their past three spots and then some. And guess what? They will be on the road against one of the best offensive groups in the league. Plus, the Dolphins are expecting to get their star Wide Receiver Tyreek Hill back in the mix.
Miami, offensively, is averaging the second most yards per play (6.6) and Dallas is racking up 5.5 YPP (7th). That average for the Cowboys, though, has decreased to 4.8 over their recent three-game stretch.
Furthermore, Mike McDaniel’s group comes into this game with the league’s second most efficient red zone offense, as they are scoring a touchdown 68% of the time when entering that territory. Mike McCarthy’s squad ranks 15th in that regard, and is doing so at a rate of 56%.
We haven’t seen Dak Prescott and company prove their worth quite yet in a spot such as this. Meaning, them getting a dub on the road against a tough team. And I don’t think anything will change after this Sunday either.
I believe that to be the case for the same reasons that I stated last week in support for the Bills against the Cowboys. I feel that Tagovailoa, much like Allen, will be alleviated from the stress and pressure more than Dak will. The Cowboys have weaknesses in their run defense and the dynamic duo of Raheem Mostert and De’Von Achane can absolutely expose that, much like James Cook and company did this past weekend as they averaged 5.4 yards per carry. This will take the strain off of Tua and allow other weapons in his offense to take over the game.
I don’t expect the same to happen for the Cowboys offense, though. They very much struggle to establish the ground game. Dallas couldn’t do it last week and have been unable to do it against any competent defense for that matter. I already showed you how solid this Miami run defense is (3.7 YPC allowed), so we shouldn't all of a sudden assume Tony Pollard will have a breakout game.
Ultimately, this will allow the Dolphins to control the clock, tire the Cowboys defense out and simultaneously frustrate their offense.
Miami gets the job done on Christmas Eve, and Dak’s MVP campaign will officially come to a close after falling short, yet again, against a top opponent.
Play: Dolphins Moneyline (-120); risk 1.20 units to win 1.00
NFL Record: 32-23-1 (+7.13)
Comments