This line has had a big alteration. Originally, the Bills opened as low as an 8-point favorite, but now they are as high as 10-point favorites.
Buffalo has played abhorrently the past two weeks, however, on a short week against a weaker Tampa Bay squad, they should be set up nicely.
The Bucs are banged up heading into this spot. QB Baker Mayfield was listed as questionable, but is expected to go. WR Chris Godwin and DT Vita Vea are both game-time decisions.
Regardless if those guys play or not, I still like the Bills.
However, I am going to use them in a teaser spot. Unfortunately, I waited too long to write this play for the website and the number I teased them down from (8.5) is no longer available. But, with -9’s still out there, I don’t mind opting into a 6.5-point teaser.
Offensively, the Bills are 2nd in offensive success rate and 3rd in offensive EPA/play. The Bucs are 29th in offensive success rate and 19th in EPA/play.
Defensively, these units are fairly similar.
Both of these teams have really good red zone defenses, but, on the offensive side - the home team has been much better.
Josh Allen and company are scoring a TD, when entering the red zone, at a 71.4% clip (2nd). Baker Mayfield and his crew are doing so at a rate of 37.5% (28th).
The short week, banged up players and the lack of overall talent will not bode well for the road team in this situation.
Sean McDermott’s crew will bounce back with a much needed victory and cover the teaser leg of -2.5.
So then the question is...which team do we pair them with?
My selection for that will be the Detroit Lions. I recommend teasing them down from -7.5 to -1 on the 6.5-point teaser we are electing to use.
Don’t let what happened last week to the Lions fool you - this team is still very solid. And, more importantly, we should be able to trust them against a pathetic Las Vegas unit.
Detroit ranks 9th in DVOA defense, whereas the Raiders are 25th.
Offensively, Dan Campbell has his team 9th in EPA/play, with an average of 5.6 yards per play. On the other side, Josh McDaniels’ group comes in at 23rd in terms of EPA/play and they rack up just 4.7 YPP.
Jimmy Garoppolo is expected to return for this matchup, but in my mind that isn’t going to move the needle all that much. Yes, Jimmy G is a better option than Brian Hoyer and/or Aidan O’Connell. However, Garoppolo hasn’t necessarily been lighting it up with a TD-INT ratio of 7-8 and a QBR of 46.5.
Detroit will get back into a rhythm offensively, and their defense will force Garoppolo into a crucial mistake or two, like most teams do in primetime games against him
Play: 6.5-point Teaser Bills (-2.5) / Lions (-1); 1.30 units to win 1.00
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