Brief Recap of Last Night:
Taking a break from the hockey slate as last night we fell short yet again. That’s my bad on the handicap considering I believed the starting goalie for the Canucks would be Thatcher Demko, and, instead, we got the backup Casey DeSmith. Certainly that would’ve changed my approach, but I only have myself to blame for not confirming it later in the day. I was fearful that once it was confirmed (like I assumed it would be) that the price would move and I wouldn’t be able to dish out a solid number for you all. If only hockey listed goalies like baseball does with pitchers, that’d be nice. Regardless, like I said - I have no one to blame but myself and need to be more considerate with that going forward.
Let’s see if we can make some back on the hardwood.
Nuggets @ Knicks
Denver is about to play their fifth consecutive road game tonight at Madison Square Garden. They are currently laying -2.5, however, that is not where my interests lie.
I’m invested in the total for this game. It opened at 224 and we’ve seen it dip to as low as 222, with some 222.5’s still hanging out there.
I agree with that movement and have bet the total under 222.5.
As I stated, the Nuggets are enduring yet another road game, which could cause them to be a tad weary - and it’s in a hostile environment against a Knicks team that plays better at home, especially on the defensive end.
New York is allowing opponents, on average, 105 points per game at home compared to 114 on the road.
Denver is averaging about 9 points less per game on the road (112) than at home (121).
When you look at the combined splits for both teams on the offensive front, they are still both very respectable offenses. Luckily, they each have good enough defenses to counter that.
The Nuggets are 7th in offensive Points per 100 Possessions and the Knicks are 8th defensively. Conversely, New York is 9th in offensive Pts/Poss and Denver is 12th defensively.
Plus, both of these teams are bottom half in terms of points added per possession in transition play - so hopefully we can expect a slower place. And why shouldn’t we? The Nuggets are tied-25th in pace of play and the Knicks are tied-21st.
I’m expecting more tired legs than usual on the side of the road team and an enthusiastic effort on the defensive front from the home squad that should cause this game to stay lower scoring.
Play: Total UNDER 222.5 (-112); Risk 1.12 units to win 1.00
NBA PROP
How about a little prop play to add to the slate? Nothing crazy, I’ll just be throwing a half unit on this wager as I slowly integrate myself back into the NBA betting scene.
De’Aaron Fox Over 26.5 Points (-120)
The thing that stood out to me while looking at the Kings / Warriors matchup tonight was how much of a defensive liability Golden State is from midrange. The Warriors are allowing opponents to make 48.5% of their shot attempts from there, which is lousy enough to rank them dead last in the Association.
Naturally, this led me to viewing which players on Sacramento take a majority of their shots from that area. De’Aaron Fox stood out as he is taking 45% of his shot attempts from that region and connecting on 46% of them.
Plus, for whatever reason, when it comes to playing Golden State - that has been the matchup Fox gets up for. In the two games he’s faced them this year he has scored 39 and 29 points respectively, shot 48% from the floor, attempted 24 field goal attempts per game and shot over 41% from downtown. The only other team he’s played that aggressively against, this season, is the Lakers.
We know these squads dueled in the postseason last year, and maybe the fact that the Kings lost still produces plenty of motivation for Fox to show up against Steph Curry and company.
Well, whatever the case may be, let’s see if we can use it to our advantage and bet him over his points prop this evening. The expectation is that there will be a lot of points scored between these two teams as the total has risen from 240 to 242.5, so let’s hope Fox produces a majority of it.
Play: De’Aaron Fox Over 26.5 Points Scored (-120); Risk .50 units to win .42 units
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