Jazz @ Knicks
The New York Knicks, believe it or not, are looking to accomplish their most successful month in nearly 30 years with a win this evening. The Knicks are 13-2 this month, which is the most for the franchise in a month since January 1995, when Coach Pat Riley led Patrick Ewing and company to a 13-2 record.
A lot to look forward to, sure, however - New York will have to get it done without one of their top players in Julius Randle. Randle suffered a dislocated right shoulder in the fourth quarter of a 125-109 win over the Heat on Saturday. Plus, OG Anunoby’s status is questionable after missing last night’s game due to right elbow inflammation.
There is a shot Anunoby could play tonight and I believe we’re getting a relatively solid price on New York due to his status being up in the air. I laid four points (-115) at BetRivers on the Knicks.
This will be the sixth straight road game for this Utah bunch and they are coming off a blowout loss @ Brooklyn (147-114) last night.
The Jazz have struggled much more away from home this season, too. On average, they are scoring about 11 points less and, defensively, allowing six points more to their opponents away from their home court.
On the other side, the Knicks are about equal home and away on the offensive front, but thrive defensively at Madison Square Garden, as they limit their opponents to 9 points less per game there than on the road.
Taking home and road splits out of the equation, let’s look at the broad view of both of these teams.
New York has plenty of advantages, it appears:
Knicks Offense:
7th in Pts/Poss (119.8) / 15th in eFG% (54.7%)
Jazz Defense:
24th in Pts/Poss (119.1) / 20th in eFG% (56.1%)
Jazz Offense:
15th in Pts/Poss (116.1) / 19th in eFG% (54.5%)
Knicks Defense:
7th in Pts/Poss (113.2) / 12th in eFG% (54.4%)
Knicks Half Court Offense:
15th in Pts/Play (99.8)
Jazz Half Court Defense:
22nd in Pts/Play (101.1)
Jazz Half Court Offense:
24th in Pts/Play (96.5)
Knicks Half Court Defense:
7th in Pts/Play (97)
Knicks Transition Offense:
15th in Pts+/Poss
Jazz Transition Defense:
29th in Pts+/Poss
Jazz Transition Offense:
21st in Pts+/Poss
Knicks Transition Defense:
15th in Pts+/Poss
Also on the offensive side, New York has dominated the glass as they rank 1st in offensive rebound percentage.
And one other potential downfall for Utah may be their struggle with ball control. They are dead last in turnover percentage offensively and 21st defensively.
I could keep adding to my reasoning for siding with the home team, but I think you get the gist.
In an ideal world we get Anunoby to play, but - even if that isn’t the case - I still feel enough confidence in this red-hot Knicks team to extend their winning streak to eight games…let’s hope they do it by a winning margin of more than four.
Play: Knicks (-4, -115); risk 1.15 units to win 1.00
Player Prop:
I’m heading to Boston for this prop and targeting Jaylen Brown to get OVER 23.5 points tonight against the Pacers.
Brown has faced Indiana four times this season and he has loved every minute of it. He is averaging 29.3 points per game and shooting over 60% against the Pacers. He’s gone over 23.5 points in 3/4 matchups; the one he stayed under happened to be the first game of the season and he racked up 16 points.
Why does Brown perform so well against this group?
Well, for starters, they are a poor defensive team in general.
Indiana ranks 27th in defensive Pts/Poss (120.6) and 25th in defensive effective field goal percentage (56.7%). Also, they are dead last in defensive free throw rate (24.6).
When you look deeper into the specific issues of the Pacers defense, it comes from defending mid range, where they are allowing opponents to connect on 47% of their shot attempts, which ranks them 29th. Brown just so happens to take a majority of his shots from that region (37%) and is making 48% of them.
This game total has soared to as high as 246, so clearly points are to be expected. Brown should be striving to partake in a large chunk of that.
Play: Jaylen Brown Over 23.5 Points (-110); Risk 1.00 units to win .91 units
NBA Record: 3-1 (+1.32)
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