Pelicans @ Rockets
Matchup number three of four between Houston and New Orleans will be taking place down in Texas, as the Rockets look for their third win of the season against the Pelicans.
On November 10th, Houston defeated New Orleans 104-101, and then once again at home, on December 23rd, 106-104.
Aside from both of those games being close contests, what else do you notice? Probably that both affairs were lower scoring.
Well, to me, that makes sense. The Pelicans rank 18th in terms of pace of play, and the Rockets rank 15th.
Also, despite New Orleans having an above-average offense - 14th in Pts/Poss (117.5) and 12th in eFG% (56%) - Houston can counter that efficiently with a defense that sits 5th in both Pts/Poss (112.5) and eFG% (53%).
Conversely, the Rockets’ offensive numbers haven’t been all that impressive as they stack up 21st in Pts/Poss (114.9) and 23rd in eFG% (53.4%). Defensively, the Pelicans are 11th in Pts/Poss (114.5) and 14th in eFG% (54.6%).
Furthermore, as we take a gander at where both of these offenses are taking a majority of their shot attempts from, we can also see that both squads defend from those respective areas quite well.
Houston is taking 35% of their shot attempts from three-point land and New Orleans ranks 3rd in defending shots from deep (35.2%). And then as we look at the Pelicans shot selection, a majority of them are released at the rim (34.5%) and the Rockets are 10th at defending shots near the rim (65%).
What can really impact a total is the amount of transition opportunities. These are quick-paced efforts that usually lead to easier shot selections. However, these teams may struggle in that department against one another tonight. Houston is 1st in Pts+/Poss on transition defense and New Orleans is 17th in Pts+/Poss offensively. On the other side, the Pelicans are 11th defensively and the Rockets are 16th offensively.
I’m sure by now you can understand that I’m gravitating toward the UNDER in this game. I’m shocked to see the market move in the other direction, though. This total opened as low as 229 and we now see it as high as 232. Perhaps it’s because in their last five games, both of these groups have seen game totals go over 232 in three of those spots. A tad bit unusual for these defenses; and because of that I believe the market is over-adjusting. Let’s look to take advantage of the higher number in hopes that this is a slower, defensive-mined type of game.
Play: Pelicans / Rockets UNDER 232 (-105); Risk 1.05 units to win 1.00
NBA Record: 5-1 (+3.23)
I only have the one play thus far; if I add any more I will be sure to update it here on the site / Twitter (@dannyburke5)
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