Hornets @ Jazz
If you’re wanting to watch some defensive prowess in the NBA tonight - then this is not the game for you.
Charlotte comes into this matchup as the 30th ranked defense in terms of points per 100 possessions allowed, effective field goal percentage and half court points per play. They are facing a Utah offense that takes a majority of their shots from three point land (38%), and, unfortunately, the Hornets rank 29th at defending shots from there, as opponents are connecting on 40% of attempts from deep.
It’s not just the Charlotte defense that resembles swiss cheese , though - it is the home team's as well. The Jazz are 25th in both defensive Pts/Poss and eFG%. They also rank 26th in half court Pts/Play allowed and 28th at defending the three ball (39.8%). So the Hornets should be able to get plenty of quality offensive looks tonight, too.
Despite those numbers, this total opened at 232 and has since moved down to as low as 228.5.
Perhaps it’s because it is the first game back from the All-Star break, and these players are sometimes slow to get off the couch and play as swiftly and effectively as they normally would if they were in the midst of a streak of games. I totally get that line of thinking. However, I believe this matchup - due to the inept defenses - is the exception and the market has altered a bit too drastically.
Let’s not neglect that Utah is a much different offense at home - averaging 124 ppg there as opposed to 113 on the road. And Charlotte, defensively, is surrendering around three more points on the road (121.3) in comparison to at home (117.8).
The question is…what can the Hornets do to contribute to the scoring? The first time these teams met was back on January 27th, in North Carolina, and featured a high-scoring affair with the road team winning 134-122.
The difference now, though, is a new-look Charlotte team. The other week, they dished out Gordon Hayward, P.J. Washington and Terry Rozier. In return, they acquired Grant Williams, Seth Curry and Tre Mann. We discussed this on the website right before the ASB, because we played the Hornets +7.5 against the Hawks - put faith in these new pieces and they returned the favor in winning outright by 23 points.
With these new faces in the mix, Charlotte is on a three-game win streak. In this brief span, their defense has seemingly improved, but I think this game will set them back a bit in a tougher road environment. Also, on the offensive front, these three players have combined for a total of122 points in this stretch.
I expect the efficiency to persist within both team’s scoring efforts, which will be aided by a lack of defensive focus.
Play: UTA / CHA Over 228.5; Risk 1.10 unit to win 1.00
Prop - Tre Mann Combined Points, Rebounds & Assists 23.5
Speaking of those newly acquired players, one in particular has shined in his short stint in Charlotte; and that would be the 23-year-old Tre Mann.
Throughout these three games, Mann has averaged 30.3 minutes, 5.3 FGM - 11.7 FGA, 13.7 pts, 7.3 ast and 7.0 reb.
Prior to joining the Hornets, he played 13 games with the Thunder, averaged about 9 minutes per game and totaled just 49 points. He has scored 41 total points in the minimal amount of time he’s spent with his new team.
Clearly, and evidently, he is thriving in his new role. And not only is he excelling, but he is relied upon. I expect that to continue.
He’s gone over this prop of 23.5 points, rebounds and assists in 2/3 games with Charlotte, and is averaging 28 within that combination. Yes, it’s a small sample size, but when it’s on a team like the Hornets that have many holes to fill and opportunities to insert yourself as a top playmaker, we should look to capitalize on it before the market adjusts accordingly.
And don’t forget, it’s a favorable matchup against a weaker Utah defense. The Jazz rank 28th at defending the three ball (39.8%), 23rd from midrange (45%) and 15th at the rim (66%). Mann is shooting 38% of his attempts from deep, 32% at the rim and 29% from midrange. He’s connecting on 46% from beyond the arc, 64% near the bucket and 30% from mid. He’s widespread with his shot preferences, which is a good thing against a defense that’s fragile all over.
Play: Tre Mann Over 23.5 Points, Rebounds & Assists (-105); Risk 1.05 unit to win 1.00
NBA record: 14-4 (+8.63)
ICYMI:
I released a podcast episode the other day. I was joined by RotoWire's NBA Analyst Nick Whalen (@Wha1en). Him and I previewed the second-half of the NBA season, discussed various futures bets we liked and much more. I recommend taking a listen if you're interested in getting more into hoops this time of year, or just want a better understanding of what to target in the futures department.
Links to Apple / Spotify: https://linktr.ee/dburke5
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