Thunder @ Magic
In this spot, OKC opened as a 2.5-point favorite and the total originated as high as 226.5. The most apparent alteration has occurred around the total, as we now see it as low as 223.
The first meeting between these squads happened a month ago, in Oklahoma City, and the Thunder won 112-100.
212 total points were scored in the first matchup, so why is the market adjusting so aggressively the second time around?
Well, we have to recognize that a one-game sample size is nowhere near big enough to solidify putting the game total as low as their recent result, and - furthermore - one of these teams is quite powerful on the offensive side.
OKC is 2nd in offensive effective field goal percentage and 4th in points per 100 possessions. Orlando can counter efficiently with a strong defense of their own, though, which ranks 14th in defensive eFG% and 4th in Pts/Poss.
Also, the Thunder are taking most of their shot attempts from deep (35%) and it just so happens that the Magic do their best work, defensively, around the perimeter by limiting opponents to making 35% of their looks from out there.
So we can see that the home team may be able to hold their own on the defensive front, but what can we expect if we reverse roles?
On offense, Orlando does not quite move the needle as much as their upcoming opponent. The Magic rank 24th in both offensive points per 100 possessions and effective FG%. Defensively, OKC ranks 6th and 4th in those categories, respectively.
Orlando takes over 38% of their shots at the rim (1st) and the Thunder are allowing opposing teams to make only 61% from there (1st). So, again, we have a situation where one team counters the other nicely.
After realizing all of that, it makes complete sense why the market has hit this total to the under.
Though, I do feel a little less confident betting into this total considering it’s moved more than three points at some shops. And, also, the spread (-2.5 consensus) indicates that this could be a closely played game, thus opening a window of opportunity for extra time, late fouls, etc, which would not be beneficial to the under.
That drew my curiosity to see what the first half under was priced at; and the number is listed at 114.5.
In that first meeting between these teams the first half total was a combined 89 points. I am going to wager on this first half being lower-scoring once again, and hit that under 114.5.
This first half is set as if the full game total is 229, yet we’ve seen it move down to as low as 223. I get that some teams have more success in different halves and quarters, but nothing really stood out to me - while digging into the stats - that would lead me to believe this first half total shouldn’t have adjusted, too.
And considering I already favor the full game going under the total, if for some unfortunate reason we lose out on this first half under, then we can always look to live bet the full game under. If it goes over the total in the first half then the total for the full game will presumably adjust to being even higher than what it’s currently listed at, which will give us a better number for a spot we were already considering. Something to keep in mind if you tail.
Play: OKC / ORL 1st Half Under 114.5 (-110); Risk 1.10 units to win 1.00
Rudy Gobert - 13.5 Points Scored
Let’s get straight to the point for this bet. Gobert has an incredibly favorable matchup this evening in Portland.
The Blazers rank dead last at defending the rim, allowing opponents to make 71% of their shots from there. Plus, they allow the third-most attempts in general from that range.
Gobert is taking 85% of his shots at the rim and connecting on 71% of them. He’s gone over 13.5 points scored in 32/52 games this season.
Also, the first time he faced Portland this year he went off:
9-11 FG, 6-8 FT, 17 rebounds, 24 points.
He's also playing some of his most efficient basketball in the month of February:
36.6 MPG | 6.0-8.2 FG | 73.2% FG | 4.8-6.4 FT | 13.2 Reb | 16.8 PPG
He's gone over this prop mark in 4/5 games this month, too. I’m expecting more of the same tonight and betting him to go over 13.5 points scored.
Play: Rudy Gobert Over 13.5 Points Scored (-125)
*Best Price was found at FanDuel *
NBA Record: 11-4 (+5.63)
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