Thunder @ Pelicans
The third meeting between these teams will be taking place in the Big Easy. Both teams have defeated the other on their respective home floor in the prior matchups. Should we expect the same for the final outing?
Well, let’s understand that Brandon Ingram is out with a bone contusion, so that already puts the home team at a disadvantage. Furthermore, the Pelicans are coming back to their home floor after enduring a four-game road trip that occurred during just a span of six days. Perhaps New Orleans will be a bit fatigued.
Also, the Thunder will be following an incredibly disappointing outing at Milwaukee this past Sunday night. They fell 118-93 and were flat out embarrassed. For a team that considers themselves a contender, this is a perfect spot to bounce back and further their conviction.
Aside from those factors, let’s take a peek at the statistics.
OKC ranks 2nd in half court points per 100 plays, 3rd in effective field goal percentage and 4th in both offensive points per 100 possessions and transition points plus per 100 possessions.
Defensively, the Thunder come in at 3rd in both half court defensive points allowed per 100 plays, along with transition defensive efficiency, and then rank 6th in both defensive Pts/Poss and eFG%.
They are a very balanced team to say the least.
New Orleans does sit top-10 in both pts/poss and eFG% on each side of the ball, but - again, the difference in this game will reside in the outliers that were mentioned above. Also, the Pelicans aren’t the strongest group transitionally speaking.
And, when looking at their shot selections we can see that a majority come at the rim (34.4%), but it just so happens that Oklahoma City is the best defense near the rim (61.4%) this season.
In my estimation, this seems like a pretty solid spot for the road team to claim yet another victory between these two groups.
Play: OKC ML (-112); Risk 1.12 units to win 1.00
Khris Middleton Prop:
Back on February 6th, in Phoenix, Middleton exited the game after playing just six minutes with an injury to his ankle. He would go one to miss over a month of play.
He returned on Sunday, March 17th, to face the Suns yet again. In that game, he dropped 22 points and logged 7 assists. Following that performance, he scored 22 at Boston, along with 6 dimes, and then in his most recent outing he only hit five shots and scored 11 points, but did rack up 10 assists.
Middleton is someone who lives at the mid range mark. 49% of his looks come from there and he makes 53% of them. If he can’t spot up in that region, he instead finds a vacancy beyond the arc, where 37% of his releases are coming from with a success rate of 38%.
The Lakers are allowing opponents to shoot 37.7% of their attempts from deep (25th) and 32.5% from mid (21st). And they will be missing a big defensive presence in LeBron James this evening.
Aside from seeing that Middleton could potentially be set up for a favorable matchup with the shooting, how about with his assistance toward teammates?
He’s averaging over 5 dimes per game and 7.7 in the last three since his return. Could he be in store for more tonight?
Well, Los Angeles does allow the 27th-most assists per game and 25th-most per possession. Clearly, their defense is collapsing a bit too frequently and leaving other players open for easy buckets.
14.5 is where Middleton’s points prop is listed and 5.5 is where his assists prop is at. Personally, I would lean toward the over in both regards. And the vig is holding more weight toward both overs, so I was expecting the combination of those props to be at least 21.5. However, most books are dealing 20.5 with -125 juice to the over.
I believe we are getting a better bargain on the combination prop as opposed to just the individual points / assists props, so that is why I’m electing to go that route instead.
Middleton hasn’t faced the Lakers this year, but in the past six meetings against them - dating back to 2021 - he has averaged 18.3 ppg and 5.8 apg. Hopefully those numbers persist tonight.
Play: Khris Middleton Over 20.5 Points and Assists (-125); Risk 1.25 Units to win 1.00
NBA Record: 35-27 (+1.36)
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