Suns @ Pacers
Phoenix has been on an absolute tear as they’ve won their last seven consecutive games. Tonight, they will surely be put to the test as they head to Indiana to face one of the best teams in the NBA. However, the Pacers are still going to be missing their top guy, Tyrese Haliburton.
Haliburton has missed the last three contests due to an injury to his hamstring.
These teams did face off a few games ago; Haliburton was absent for it, and the Suns were victorious, at home, 117-110.
During their current winning streak, Phoenix has had an average winning margin of 11 points. If you narrow it down to just their wins on the road in that span, which is four, then they are beating their opponents by a margin of 16.5 points.
Seeing those numbers aren’t shocking considering the Suns rank 7th in offensive points per 100 possessions (119.6) and 9th in offensive effective field goal percentage (56.4%). And it wouldn’t be crazy to expect that success on that side of the floor to continue tonight. The Pacers, defensively, are 27th in Pts/Poss (120.7) and 24th in eFG% (56.5%).
Also, Phoenix does a tremendous job getting to the charity stripe as they stack up 2nd in the NBA in free throw rate. Indiana sits at 29th in defensive free throw rate.
When you look at where this Suns team has the most volume and success, it comes from midrange. 34.5% of their shot attempts are from there, and that is the second highest mark in the league. The Pacers allow opponents to attempt 34% of their shots from that area (26th) and connect on 47% of them (29th).
Another issue that Indiana has defensively comes on transition, where they rank dead last in points plus per possession. Phoenix, offensively, is 14th in that regard.
So it could be a long night ahead for this Pacers defense.
What does this matchup look like if we flip it around, though?
Well, Indiana comes into this matchup ranking 1st in both Pts/Poss (122.1) and eFG% (58.6%).
The Suns are capable of holding their own defensively to some degree: 11th in eFG% (54.3%) and 15th in Pts/Poss (115.6).
And you have to imagine that missing your leading scorer will take a chunk out of your offensive success if you’re the Pacers.
Oh, and on top of all of those things, let’s not forget the strenuous scheduling that the underdog has endured as of late. Indiana is coming off of a high scoring affair last night, at home, in a spot in which they defeated the 76ers 134-122. So this evening will be the second leg of a back-to-back for them. But, prior to last night, they went on a six-game road trip, and then came home to face a fierce team in Denver. It appears this may not be a favorable time for the Pacers to be catching a team as hot as the desert they come from.
Play: Suns -4.5 (-110); Risk 1.10 units to win 1.00
Thunder @ Pelicans
At face value the thought perceived by many people regarding this matchup is that it will be higher scoring. And while that may be true, I think the market has adjusted just a taaaaaad bit too much.
The total in this game opened as high as 241, we see it now as low as 238, but there are some 239.5’s still out there.
These teams met all the way back on November 1st, in Oklahoma City, and the Pelicans came out on top 110-106. A lot has changed since then, but it is still noteworthy to see how these teams stacked up when they faced each other.
Both of these squads are very solid offensively - there is no denying that. However, what does impress me, and may be getting overlooked, is how strong each respective defense is.
OKC is 2nd in defensive eFG% and 4th in defensive Pts/Poss. New Orleans comes in at 9th in both respective categories.
When we look at both teams' frequency regarding shot attempts, we can also see that the opponent’s defense counters it nicely.
A majority of the Pelicans shot attempts occur at the rim, but the Thunder are the best in the league at defending shots from that range (60.7%). Conversely, OKC takes the brunt of their shots from beyond the arc, however, New Orleans is limiting the competition to making just 34.9% of those attempts, which ranks them third best in the Association.
In terms of halfcourt defense the Thunder rank 2nd in Pts/Play and the Pelicans are 8th. And both of these teams should be rested well enough to keep those legs moving on the defensive side of the ball.
I know it’s never fun to sweat out an under - especially in the NBA - but I believe the market has made this number just a bit too high and I’m looking to take advantage of that.
Play: Thunder / Pelicans Under 239.5 (-118); Risk 1.18 Units to win 1.00
NBA Record: 2-0 (+1.42)
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