Pacers @ Bulls
Somehow the Bulls have scratched and clawed their way to having two victories over this Pacers team. The second win came on March 13th, in Indiana, and Chicago won 132-129 in OT. DeMar DeRozan hit a game-tying fadeaway shot to send the game to extra time, and the rest was history.
The Bulls really had no business winning that game, but - credit where credit is due - they fought hard and took advantage of the Pacers’ mishaps.
Fast forward a couple weeks later to tonight and you will see a much different vibe around Chicago’s team. Since that signature win in Indiana, the Bulls have gone 2-4 straight up, with losses to the Clippers, Rockets, Celtics and most notably, and recently, the Wizards. Chicago is now in the midst of a three-game losing streak.
Conversely, the Pacers have gone 4-2 in that span. They are also fighting to stay out of the play-in game as they currently hold the sixth-seed and are 1.5 games ahead of the Heat and Sixers.
Chicago has incentive to snap their losing streak and defend their home floor against a division rival. Simultaneously, Indiana seeks revenge for blowing that game versus the Bulls and is fighting for a guaranteed spot in the playoffs.
At the end of the day, it’s clear just how thin this Chicago roster is. They can only hold strong for so long without reserves contributing. The Pacers offense still ranks second best in both points per 100 possessions and effective field goal percentage. The Bulls are 21st and 20th in those categories respectively.
Chicago does tend to play tougher against Indiana, but I believe this particular situation favors the road team.
Play: Pacers ML (-148); Risk 1.48 units to win 100
Rockets @ Thunder
The Thunder made us endure quite the sweat last night, but, fortunately, they hung on and cashed our moneyline ticket.
Tonight, it’s a quick turnaround against the streaking Rockets. Houston has now won their last 9 games. Albeit, only two of those wins came against teams with better than a .500 record.
And, to know the Rockets is to know their home / road splits. In Houston, they post a record of 26-11 - but when playing outside of that they have gone 10-24.
I am a little hesitant to back OKC for the full game considering they played in a taxing affair last night, and they will be without their MVP candidate in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.
Instead, I’m targeting the first half with the assumption that the Thunder will have a bit of energy and bravado after their impressive dub yesterday and use that to fuel themselves in the beginning stages of this meeting. They almost blew a 15-point lead in the second half against the Pelicans last night and I don’t want to potentially be involved in that again, especially on the second leg of a back-to-back and without their best player.
In first half play this season, OKC has a margin of +3.2 (3rd). On their home floor that number increases to +4.9. Houston has an overall first half margin of +0.5 (17th), and on the road it drops to -5.6 (24th).
Betting wise, on the road - the Rockets are 10-23-1 against the spread in the first half. The Thunder are 21-14 ATS at home in the first half.
I was willing to lay -3.5 on Oklahoma City prior to SGA being announced as a scratch, and am still encouraged to bet on an even cheaper price now that the market has adjusted. OKC is still a much better team all throughout and Houston is still abysmal on the road.
The rest of the Thunder’s roster will view SGA’s absence as a challenge and look to come out firing.
Play: OKC 1H -1 (-120)
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