*ADDED PLAY*
Tyus Jones
I originally wanted to back a wager involving Jones, but the books hadn't posted his prop numbers until later in the day. After seeing what they listed him at, I view this as a very viable betting opportunity.
The reason Jones stood out to me today is because he is facing the Warriors who are dreadful from midrange. Golden State ranks dead last in opponents shot frequency from short midrange (29%) and overall midrange (37.5%). And, they also rank at the bottom in terms of their opponents making those shots as they are allowing them to connect on over 49% from short midrange and 47.5% from all midrange.
Among the Wizards entire roster, Jones is taking the most shot attempts from both short midrange (40%) and midrange entirely (48%). He's making over 50% from both regions.
Jones has already seen the Warriors once this season - back on December 22nd - and knocked down 14 points on 75% shooting. In the month of February, he's averaging 12.6 ppg and has eclipsed 11.5 points, which is his prop mark tonight - in 7/10 games.
Throughout the whole season, Jones has gone over 11.5 points in 33/57 games (58%). He's also shown to be a tad bit more comfortable at home, where he's averaging 13 ppg.
You can find 11.5 points (-117) posted at Caesar's. I would play it up to the odds of -120.
Play: Tyus Jones Over 11.5 Points (-117); Risk 1.17 units to win 1.00
Jarrett Allen
The big man in the middle for Cleveland, Jarrett Allen, has been feasting in the month of February. Allen is averaging 18.3 points and 10.6 rebounds per game. Tonight appears to feature another huge outing for the 25-year-old.
Allen will be going up against the Mavericks, and the last time this occurred he totaled 24 points and 23 rebounds. Heading into this evening's affair, the lineups will look a bit different. The Cavs did not have their other big man, Evan Mobley, present in that prior matchup, nor did Dallas have Maxi Kleber, Daniel Gafford and P.J. Washington.
So it’s apparent why Allen was relied upon so heavily in that first meeting, and why he was able to perform very successfully.
But, let’s not kid ourselves - even with all of those other guys being available tonight, it’s still a strong spot for Allen.
I originally considered his points prop, but the line is set as high at 17.5, which seemed accurate to me.
However, where I do believe we can make our mark is with his rebounds prop. The number is set at 10.5 and the cheapest odds I found were at -125.
It was no fluke that this man dominated the boards the first go around vs the Mavs. Dallas has the second lowest contested rebound percentage (27.8%) and the fourth lowest rebound chance percentage rate (54.6%).
Furthermore, this Mavericks offense is a group that loves to chuck up shots from deep. They are taking 42% of their shot attempts from beyond the perimeter. Shooting that many shots from that deep is going to lead to a lot of misses, thus setting up Allen for plenty of rebounding opportunities.
I’m banking on him controlling the boards once again and getting over this prop mark of 10.5.
Play: Jarrett Allen Over 10.5 Rebounds (-125); Risk 1.25 units to win 1.00
Jaylen Brown
When peaking at Brown’s shot chart we can see that among his teammates, he is taking the most shots from long midrange territory (14%) and midrange in general (37%). He is making 49% from long midrange and 48% from midrange overall.
Plus, 32% of his looks are coming at the rim and from there he is connecting on 68%.
Why do these numbers matter? They matter because when looking at tonight’s matchup against Philadelphia, it’s evident that he could see a lot of quality looks.
The 76ers weakest parts of their defense reside in that midrange vicinity and near the bucket. Philly is allowing opponents to knock down 44% of their attempts from long midrange (22nd) and 67% at the rim (20th).
Brown has seen this squad twice; and in the first matchup back in November he finished with 11 points, and then when they met in the beginning of December he racked up 20 points.
It’s hard to take away all that much from those meetings for a couple of reasons. First, they were quite some time ago, and - secondly - the lineups are different. Currently, Embiid is out for the season and the Celtics big man Kristaps Porzingis was not involved in one of those games. Realistically that may not impact Brown too much, but it’s worth noting.
Regardless, I still view this as an advantageous showdown for Brown. Especially because in games where Boston seizes control early on, we then usually see Jayson Tatum take a backseat and let other guys, such as Brown, take over the game.
Brown is coming off a 30-point performance at Madison Square Garden, against the Knicks, this past Saturday. Let’s see if he can replicate that efficiency tonight.
Play: Jaylen Brown Over 19.5 Points (-125); Risk 1.00 unit to win 0.80
NBA Record: 17-7 (+7.47)
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