Rhamondre Stevenson
There is potential for a big day on the ground for the Patriots starting running back Rhamondre Stevenson, against the Giants this Sunday.
Stevenson is coming off his two best performances of the year - 9 carries for 87 rushing yards vs WSH and 20 carries for 88 rushing yards vs IND. He has a great opportunity to replicate that success and then some against New York.
The G-Men are allowing the third most yards per carry in the NFL (4.8), rank 24th in defensive rush EPA and 22nd in defensive rush success rate. Also, DVOA ranks them 28th vs the run.
The QB room is a mess for New England and it shouldn’t take much to move the ball against this Giants defense. I expect them to lean heavily on the ground attack and for Stevenson to continue being the lead, and more efficient, back.
Play: Rhamondre Stevenson Over 58.5 Rushing Yards (-114); risk 1.14 units to win 1.00
Derrick Henry
Folks, here we are again. This has been my favorite, and most successful *knocks on wood* prop bet this season. And that wager involves taking the opposing lead running back to score a touchdown against the Panthers.
Carolina is allowing 1.6 rushing touchdowns per game (32nd). The Panthers also rank dead last in defensive rush EPA and defensive rush success rate; they are allowing opposing tailbacks 4.3 yards per rush attempt (22nd).
Derrick Henry has not been nearly as productive as he has been in years past - this is to be expected considering the usage that’s been thrown at him over the years, the limited life span of running backs in general and the fact that the Titans have not been a good team this year, thus, more often than not they are trailing and abandoning the run early to try to play catch up.
They should probably be leading for a majority of this game, which will allow Henry to carve up their weak run defense, especially in the red zone.
Let’s hope this prop continues to hit for us.
Play: Derrick Henry Anytime TD Score (+105); risk 1.00 unit to win 1.05 units
Pending Plays:
Rhamondre Stevenson Over 58.5 Rush Yards (-114)
Derrick Henry Anytime TD Score (+105)
Bills +3.5 (-115) @ Eagles
Bears / Vikings 1H Under 22.5 (-120)
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