Seahawks @ Rams
There has been significant movement on both the side and total for this matchup in Los Angeles.
Seattle opened a -2.5 favorite, with the total at 43.5. We now see this game at about a pick’em and the total ranging anywhere from 46-47.
The Rams, coming off of their bye week, are getting back QB Matthew Stafford, along with some other key pieces. Plus, it was the perfect time for a break to occur within the season for Sean McVay’s group, considering they are in the midst of a three-game losing streak.
On the other side, the Seahawks are following a walk-off field goal victory against the Commanders this past Sunday. And, prior to that, they got demolished at Baltimore 37-3.
This Seattle team, especially the defense, is not looking as tough as they once were.
This matchup originally brought my attention in the direction of taking the Rams, however, I found myself having a tad bit more conviction in the total.
As I alluded to, Pete Carroll’s defense ain’t what it was once perceived as. At this point in the season, the Seahawks rank 16th in both defensive EPA/Play and success rate.
DVOA lists Seattle 23rd in pass defense and 16th against the run.
Also, the Seahawks rank 29th in red zone defense - allowing opponents to score a touchdown in the red zone over 68% of the time.
So with the addition of Stafford, and a healthy wide receiving corps, I believe Los Angeles can produce some offense.
What about Geno Smith and his offense, though?
Well, they will get to face a Rams defense that ranks 23rd in defensive EPA/Play and 19th in defensive success rate. And against the pass, they are 23rd in drop back EPA, 25th in drop back success rate and are allowing opponents 10.9 yards per completion (27th).
Finally, let’s discuss time of possession. When you’re looking to bet overs, you’re hoping for quick possessions and scores; not teams that are going to eat up clock and methodically work their way down the field.
The good news in that regard is that Seattle ranks dead last in terms of time of possession (24:34) and Los Angeles ranks 19th (29:25). So let’s hope we do indeed get rapid possessions and frequent scores in this game.
Play: Total Over 46 (-110); risk 1.10 units to win 1.00
Vikings @ Broncos
Will the Joshua Dobbs magic continue this Sunday night in Denver? Man, I’d find it hard to believe, but it is the Broncos - so who the hell really knows.
What I do know is that the betting market is expecting points to come at a premium in this matchup. The total opened 44 and is now down to as low as 42.
I concur with that movement on the total and have bet into it.
Dobbs has been a great story, especially in his last two games with the Vikings, but this may be a spot where he comes back down to earth, considering what his season-long numbers have been indicating.
The Minnesota quarterback comes into this game ranking 26th in CPOE (completion over expected), 24th in adjusted EPA/Play and 23rd in success rate.
Now, I realize last week I was saying how crappy this Denver defense is, and, overall on the year, not much has changed statistically. Sites like rbsdm.com still rank the Broncos dead last in defensive EPA/Play and success rate. However, if we narrow the sample size down to the beginning of Denver’s current win streak, which takes us to week 7, you will see massive improvements on the defensive side of the ball.
From week 7 to now, the Broncos ranks 6th in defensive EPA/Play and 7th in drop back EPA. They are still very much struggling against the run, though, as they come in at 23rd in defensive rush EPA and allow 5.6 yards per carry (32nd).
If I’m betting an under I’d rather have the defense struggle against the run as opposed to the pass, though.
As for Minnesota, well, this defense has been severely underrated. If we look at the entirety of this season, the Vikings are 9th in defensive EPA/Play and 12th in defensive success rate.
Now if we go through the same span we did for the Broncos, which was week 7 till now, then Minnesota would stack up at 5th in defensive EPA/Play and 6th in defensive success rate.
Offensively, for Denver, Russell Wilson has looked better…relatively speaking. And running back Javonte Williams has been a workhorse as of late, averaging 82 rushing yards over the last three games.
Both players will be tested, though, against this Vikings defense that is limiting opponents to 3.7 yards per carry (4th) and 9.2 yards per completion (5th).
I’m thinking we’re going to see a grosser, sloppier primetime game with limitations on both offenses.
Play: Total Under 43 (-115); risk 1.15 units to win 1.00
PROP PLAYS
Tony Pollard
Mr. Pollard has been quite the enigma this football season. He is averaging 15 carries for 59 rushing yards per game and has seen a total of 44 red zone snaps, which has somehow amounted to only two total touchdowns on the year.
That’s right - only two.
Will the tide finally turn this week? I’m banking on it.
We’ve faded his opponent several times this season - especially in the running back prop market. Heck, we did it in their last game when we bet D’Onta Foreman anytime touchdown score for two units.
And I’m looking to do so again. It’s time for Pollard to finally find the end zone.
The Panthers rank 32nd in both defensive rush EPA and defensive rush success rate. Carolina is allowing 1.7 rushing touchdowns per game, which ranks dead last in the NFL.
Pollard has not scored since week 1 and the fans, fantasy owners and bettors are getting anxious. This is the perfect time, against the worst team in the NFL with one of the worst red zone run defenses, to get Pollard back into the scoring mix and to boost his confidence.
The best number I’ve seen so far is -115 at FanDuel. Other outlets have higher than -140, and some haven’t posted their markets on the anytime TD scorers yet. I’d be surprised if the books that haven't posted them yet end up dishing out a substantially better price than the -115, so that’s why I’m choosing to just play it now.
Play: Tony Pollard Anytime TD Score (-115); risk 1.15 units to win 1.00
Sam Howell
The Sam Howell / Washington Commanders revenge game will be in full throttle this Sunday.
Okay, maybe I’m hyping it up a tad too much, but Ron Rivera’s bunch should indeed be out looking for blood against this brutal Giants team that somehow got a 14-7 win over them a few weeks ago.
In that game, Howell went 22-42, threw for 249 yards, completing 52.4% of his passes with no touchdowns and one interception.
Certainly not Howell’s best performance; he’ll be looking to correct that this time around.
In fact, since that point, he’s improved his game drastically. In his past three games, Howell has averaged 345 passing yards, he is completing over 68% of his passes and has tossed eight touchdowns and only two picks.
Let’s not forget, the Commanders have the highest pass rate in the NFL (72%) and I expect that to be their main strategy yet again vs this weak New York secondary.
The Giants rank 26th in both DVOA pass defense and defensive pass success rate. Plus, on the season, they are allowing opponents 11.7 yards per completion (30th), and, over the last three games that number has risen to 13.2 yards per completion allowed.
The prop I’m looking at for Howell is his passing yards. BetRivers has the shortest number available, which is set at 242.5. If you don't have that available, I would still play it up to 249.5.
We did see him eclipse this in the last matchup vs the G-Men, but hopefully we get a little more comfort with it this time around.
And in order to do that, he’s going to have to get his completion percentage up. I already mentioned that over his last three spots he’s hitting at over a 68% clip, but will that persist this weekend?
Interestingly enough, Howell not having the most success on the Giants home turf isn’t necessarily shocking. This season, Brian Daboll’s defense is limiting opposing quarterbacks to a completion percentage of 52%. However, when New York is playing on the road, their opponents are completing over 69% of their passes.
When you factor in the revenge narrative, the lack of dominance from the Giants defense in general, but especially on the road, and the recent groove from the Commanders QB, all signs point toward this being a statistically dominant game from Howell.
Let’s hope we can profit off of that.
Play: Sam Howell Over 242.5 Passing Yards (-114); risk 1.14 units to win 1.00
Recap:
- SEA / LAR Over 46 (-110)
- MIN / DEN Under 43 (-115)
- Tony Pollard Anytime TD (-115)
- Sam Howell Over 242.5 Pass Yds (-114)
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