Falcons @ Bears
Here we have another spot in which the Bears are the slight home favorite. Chicago is laying three against Atlanta.
Is it deserved? Yes, I’d say so.
The Falcons have been just as frustrating as the Bears this season. Their Head Coach Arthur Smith has gone back and forth with starting quarterbacks (Desmond Ridder vs Taylor Heinicke), excluded Rookie Running Back Bijan Robinson in numerous red zone situations and has managed to piss off a majority of NFL fans because of doing so. Plus, they have had numerous games in which they could’ve or should’ve won and have failed to end up on top…much like their upcoming opponent.
So if these teams are so similar, why do we see the Bears as a favorite?
Well, for starters, Chicago gets a slight nod for playing at home. They are 4-3 at Soldier Field and 2-6 when playing anywhere else this season. The Bears average 23 ppg at home and just 19 on the road, and, defensively, are allowing 20.3 ppg at home and 25.4 on the road.
Also, the Falcons average 24 ppg at home and just 13.6 on the road, which is the 3rd fewest in the league. Yes, a lot of those struggles on the road had to do with Ridder’s inability to be efficient in those spots, but, still, as a collective unit they falter away from Mercedes-Benz Stadium.
Aside from the home field advantage, the QB battle should be favoring the Bears as well.
Justin Fields, while not having the best of numbers, is still a better option than Heinicke. Fields has a CPOE (Completion Percentage Over Expected) of 0.2% while Heinicke is at -3.9%.
Granted, Heinicke has only started three games and played in four total. In those four outings, Heinicke has managed a 4-1 touchdown to interception ratio. Fields has played in 11 games and has managed a TD-INT ratio of 15-9.
Honestly, if you look at these guys side by side, Fields hasn’t necessarily blown him out of the water. But, most people would still agree he has the higher potential as a passer, and poses as a bigger threat on the ground (585 rushing yards this season).
Heinicke has also benefited from not just a small sample size, but from facing easier defenses in that slate of matchups. He has played against the Colts (18th in DVOA defense), Cardinals (32nd in DVOA defense), Titans (20th in DVOA Defense) and the Vikings (5th in DVOA Defense).
He is the better option as opposed to Ridder, but that doesn’t mean he’s the better QB in this particular game. And a main reason that will be the case is because of the Bears’ defense.
Chicago, since week 12, has ranked first in defensive EPA/Play, success rate, drop back EPA and drop back success rate. Also, in that span, they are 6th in rush EPA and 11th in rush success rate.
On the other side, in that same stretch of time, Atlanta comes in at 5th in EPA/Play, 4th in success rate, 11th in drop back EPA, 9th in drop back success rate, 3rd in rush EPA and 7th in rush success rate.
Not too far behind their upcoming opponent, but, again, Chicago gets the slight nod.
Furthermore, overall on the season, DVOA has the Bears as the 16th ranked defense (18th vs the pass and 3rd vs the run), whereas the Falcons are the 19th ranked defense (28th vs the pass and 5th vs the run).
Both of these teams need to win to keep their playoff hopes alive. Of course, Atlanta has more of a legitimate shot in comparison to Chicago, but both teams are still fighting.
We’re also hoping for a Falcons loss to help our pre-season bet on their Under 8.5 win total.
That’s not why I’m fading them, though - just another added element into me rooting against them is all.
Where the Bears do not have the benefit in this matchup is surrounding the injury list. Wide Receiver D.J. Moore was hobbled last game and Tight End Cole Kmet and WR Darnell Mooney haven’t been practicing this week. Mooney really doesn’t make an impact on this handicap whether or not he plays, but of course Moore and Kmet do. Moore appears to be good to go though, and Head Coach Matt Eberflus did say on Friday afternoon that things with Kmet are “positive.”
Regardless, Fields will probably have to improvise and create some magic - per usual - to help this offense get going whether or not those guys are playing. But, his ability to produce that, along with having a dominant defense, should be enough to get them the dub.
This game will more than likely be very aggravating and stressful as a bettor. I wouldn’t be shocked if it comes down to a game-winning field goal or something along those lines. So I’m going to pay the extra juice to acquire more comfort in just backing the Bears to win outright.
Play: Bears Moneyline (-140); risk 1.40 units to win 1.00
Travis Etienne Anytime TD Score (+115)
Here I am, once again, going back to the well with what’s been my most successful prop bet of the year. And that is fading the Panthers red zone run defense and backing their opponents lead running back to score a touchdown at any point in the game. We lost our best a couple weeks ago when the aforementioned Arthur Smith allowed Cordarelle Patterson to get the goal line carry against them rather than Bijan Robinson, but before that we had hit it four times in a row.
And this past week, AJ Dillon was able to punch one in against Carolina in the red zone. I’m expecting a similar opportunity for Travis Etienne this upcoming Sunday.
The Panthers are still dead last in opponent rushing touchdowns allowed per game (1.5), rush EPA and also DVOA run defense. And with Etienne, we can expect him to get consistent looks in the red zone considering he has accumulated 38 snaps in that territory, while the next closest is rookie Tank Bigsby, who has five.
Jacksonville will more than likely look to rely on Etienne more than usual not just because of Carolina’s weakness against the run, but also because Trevor Lawrence is banged up heading into this matchup.
Lawrence is dealing with a sprained right AC joint that he suffered in their loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers this past Sunday. If Lawrence doesn’t start - the Jags will look to their backup C.J. Beathard to take over.
So whether it’s a beat up Lawrence or an unreliable backup in Beathard, the game plan should be to put the ball in the hands of one of your best playmakers and someone who can take the pressure off of these unstable quarterbacks down in the red zone. Let’s hope Etienne can come through for all of us involved.
Play: Travis Etienne Anytime Touchdown Score (+120); risk 1.00 unit to win 1.15
*Some books have his price listed as high as -175; ESPNBet has the +120*
Tua Tagovailoa Over 21.5 Pass Completions (-112)
You’d think this would be a bet to stray away from considering Tua won’t have Jaylen Waddle available and is going up against one of the best defenses in the NFL. And if that does concern you, I wouldn’t blame ya. But, I see this as a solid opportunity still.
First, we have to address how we believe this game will be played out. Personally, I would love to see the Dolphins win. It would help the tickets we have for Tua MVP, CMC MVP and Mike McDaniel COY. But, unfortunately for my futures bets sake, I do believe the Ravens are the better team and will find a way to win this game.
So what does that mean for the Dolphins? Well, in my mind, at some point - or for a majority of this game - Miami will be trailing and needing to throw the ball. That will force the Dolphins into more throwing situations than usual. And what Mike McDaniel schemes for Tagovailoa to do so often are these quick passes that result in high completion rates. Tua has a completion percentage of 70.5%; which is the best in the league among quarterbacks who have thrown at least 200 pass attempts. A big reason for that is because he is averaging just 2.1 seconds between having the ball snapped to him and throwing it, or being pressured. That is the quickest among starting quarterbacks this season. So, basically, the throws he consistently makes are relatively easier ones.
And the Ravens will live with that. Their main goal is to not get beat deep by Tyreek Hill and others.
Plus, Baltimore is already allowing the second most pass attempts per game in the NFL (38.4), so why should we not expect that trend to continue here?
I do believe, to begin the game, that the Dolphins will attempt to tap into their ground game, considering the weaker part of the Ravens’ defense has been their inability to control their opponent’s rushing attack. But, I can’t imagine it’s something that will be reliable / sustainable throughout the whole game - especially if they are trailing.
So let’s go ahead and bank on Tagovailoa getting over 21.5 completions this upcoming Sunday. And, hey, while you’re at it, Tua, why not also clinch a dub along the way to help our futures bets.
Play: Tua Tagovailoa Over 21.5 Pass Completions (-112); risk 1.12 units to win 1.00
Pending:
Bears ML (-140)
Travis Etienne Anytime TD (+120)
Tua Tagovailoa Over 21.5 Pass Completions (-112)
NFL Record: 34-25-1 (+6.58)
*I may have additional plays as we get closer to kickoff. So be sure to subscribe to burkesbeat.com or follow on Twitter/X: @dannyburke5, so you can view any new bets that I put out.*
Commentaires