Ravens vs Titans
Baltimore has been underperforming - tell me something new. This typically happens with Harbaugh’s squad for a certain phase of the season over the course of the past several years.
Last week was a brutal outcome for the Ravens, but - people are acting like it’s the end of the world.
Baltimore will be FINE. The receivers were absolute garbage in that game and it’s always a sluggish, grueling, disgusting matchup when they face the Steelers.
If you were not aware, this game is being played overseas in London.
And what’s also important to be cognizant of is that the Ravens arrived in London on Monday. This is crucial because typically, in the past, if a team arrives at the beginning of the week and has more days to get acclimated, then it’s a benefit.
Heck, Baltimore Tight End Mark Andrews said so himself:
“"I think for us it's been a good decision to come early. I know the first couple of days it's tough to kind of get your bearings. I feel that now we're starting to feel pretty good, get acclimated to the time zone. That's not easy. I think guys are getting good sleep and I think we're pretty fortunate to have come early, because it's not an easy thing to deal with."
As for the Titans, well, they didn’t arrive until Friday. In the past we’ve seen that be the downfall to numerous teams that have arrived late.
Harbaugh’s 2017 Ravens were one of those victims. They arrived on a Friday and then got smoked 44-7 by the Jaguars. Harbaugh made sure this time he would not make that same mistake.
So that advantage resides heavily with the Ravens.
And here are some other edges for Baltimore, but from the statistical side of things:
Defensive EPA/Play:
BAL (2nd) | TEN (23rd)
Defensive Dropback EPA
BAL (2nd) | TEN (27th)
Opponent Yards Per Play:
BAL 3.9 (2nd) | TEN 5.4 (25th)
Defensive Red Zone Efficiency:
BAL 25% (1st) | TEN 35.3% (4th)
Opponent Completion %:
BAL 60.4% (7th) | TEN 72% (28th)
Opponent Yards per Catch:
BAL 7.4 (1st) | TEN 10.3 (15th)
Offensive Red Zone Efficiency:
BAL 72.2% (3rd) | TEN 35.3% (29th)
EPA + CPOE Composite Ranking:
Lamar Jackson (14th) | Ryan Tannehill (22nd)
A lot of stats there - I apologize. But I just wanted to display how much of a gap, primarily defensively, there is between these two squads.
And when you factor that in, along with having the more efficient QB, a coach who better prepared for the travel in this spot and a team that’s pissed off at how pathetic they played last week, then I feel confident in laying the number with that unit.
4.5 has become the consensus number in favor of the Ravens, but there are still a couple spots that have 4.
So be ready to wake up bright and early on Sunday and sweat out Baltimore, baby!
Play: Ravens -4 (-115) vs Titans; 1.15 unit to win 1.00
*Number Bet at FanDuel, can be Found at PointsBet now*
Colts @ Jags
Gardner Minshew will officially be taking the helm at QB for the Colts this weekend, with Rookie QB Anthony Richardson sidelined due to injury.
While Richardson’s ceiling is infinitely higher, the volatility is what concerns people with him. On the other side, with a QB like Minshew - you pretty much know what you’re going to get.
Minshew is a steady gunslinger who can get the job done when needed. He is completing about 69% of his passes and has yet to throw an interception in 83 attempts this season.
This season, the Jags have had a fairly respectable defense, however, they can struggle against the pass.
Jacksonville’s defense ranks 14th in dropback EPA and is allowing 11.0 yards per completion, which ranks 26th.
Speaking of defenses, on the side of Indianapolis - that part of their game has been concerning.
The Colts rank 20th in DVOA pass defense and 17th in DVOA run defense.
The good news for Indy is that Jags QB Trevor Lawrence has been underperforming thus far.
Lawrence is 22nd in EPA per play, and 24th in CPOE (Completion % Over Expected).
In his first game of the season, which was against the Colts, Lawrence did go 24/32, for 241 yards with 2 touchdowns and 1 interception. PFF listed that game as his best offensive grade this season (86.3).
And if you’re unaware, I am a huge Lawrence supporter this year. I am intensely rooting for him to pick up the slack considering I am sweating out multiple tickets, as high as 17/1, on him to win MVP.
But, I’m actually going against him in this spot.
The Jags just played two games overseas; one would figure that would take a toll on them.
And not only that, but you have to come home to face a division foe - and one that you’ve already played just a month ago.
Division games are hard enough, even harder the second go around and then even more difficult when you have them post-back-to-back games overseas.
And don’t forget, the Colts bring in some momentum from their win over Tennessee this past weekend.
Now, Jacksonville did get the job done in the first matchup against Indianapolis, winning 31-21; but, honestly, the game was closer than the final score relays it to be. The Colts had a 21-17 lead heading into the fourth quarter and then proceeded to surrender two touchdowns.
Let’s recognize that it was the first game for Richardson, along with Colts HC Shane Steichen. They came out competitive, however, eventually adversity was met and not properly dealt with. Those are inevitable hurdles and learning curves that teams in transitional phases are going to meet.
But, now, Steichen will have more familiarity with how to move the ball against this Jacksonville defense. And Steichen has a different QB starting this time around and one - that at the moment - I believe to be more precise and consistent.
If Minshew can keep limiting those turnovers and execute the game plan put in place by Steichen, then I believe Indy can cover.
I have the home team as a three–point favorite. The consensus is now four, but there are four-and-a-halves out there if you shop around.
Play: Colts +4.5 (-115); 1.15 units to win 1.00
*Number Bet at FanDuel*
Vikings @ Bears
At the beginning of this week I did not envision myself getting involved in this game, unless it was with a player prop of sorts. However, the weather for this game is looking atrocious. It’s going to be rainy with winds upwards of 17 MPH.
That means that this presumed gross and ugly division game will look even more disgusting. Granted, that’s how football in the Midwest was intended to be played.
So with the wind playing such a factor, the assumption is that it will affect the passing game. That is bad news for the Vikings because they have the second highest pass rate in the NFL (71%). Also, as we know, Justin Jefferson was placed on IR and is now sidelined for at least four weeks with a hamstring injury.
Both teams come into this matchup with a 1-4 record. However, despite the lack of success in the win column - the Bears actually have some momentum to build off of, unlike the team from way up north.
The Bears are coming off their best performance of the short season as they put up 40 points and beat the Commanders by 20.
Justin Fields is coming off his best two games of the season, in which he completed 43 of 64 passes (67%), and threw for a total of 617 yards with 8 touchdowns and only 1 interception.
Again, the weather is going to be bad so Luke Getsy will have to be creative (yikes) and find some other way to get this offense to move the ball. Luckily for Chicago, they have one of the most elusive quarterbacks in the game in Fields.
And despite them missing their top two running backs, Khalil Herbert and Roschon Johnson, for this upcoming game, they have D’Onta Foreman waiting for his opportunity.
And some other injury news for the Bears, but on the positive side, is that they are expecting to return Safety Eddie Jackson and Cornerback Kyler Gordon.
Plus, let’s not forget that Chicago’s previous game was on Thursday night, so the Bears got a mini-bye week.
It’s crazy how much can alter after one week in the NFL.
Currently, the Vikings are in complete shambles after dropping yet another game, losing their top player and having rumors constantly floating around saying that Kirk Cousins may be dealt away midseason. It’s turning into a dumpster fire in the Land of 10,000 lakes.
And up until their past game, that was the case with the Bears - it was Murphy’s Law. But, now, after they finally got their first win in about a year - they can feel better about themselves and still hold their heads high knowing they can fight to turn their season around.
In this sloppy battle, I’ll take the points with the Monsters of the Midway.
Play: Bears (+3); 1.10 unit to win 1.00
Cowboys @ Chargers
Not too many numbers are going to point in favor of the home dog in this spot, yet - that’s the direction I’m betting.
Defensively speaking, we all understand that Dallas gets the nod. But, maybe they’re not as good as we all thought.
Up to this point, the Cowboys have played the 25th easiest strength of schedule, according to nfeloapp.com. Despite that, they have just a 3-2 record to show for it.
Mike McCarthy’s bunch has faced the Giants (32nd in total offense), the Jets (27th in total offense), the Cardinals, who they lost to (15th in total offense), the Patriots (26th in total offense) and then the only respectable team - the 49ers (3rd in total offense).
Against the two best offenses that Dallas faced, they allowed 28 points (Cardinals) and 42 points (49ers).
The Cowboys now get to matchup against the fifth ranked team in the NFL in terms of total offense. And an offense that gets one of their best playmakers, Austin Ekeler, back in the mix.
Justin Herbert ranks 6th in terms of EPA/Play, CPOE (Completion Percentage Over Expected) and air yards (8.8).
On the other side, Dak Prescott ranks 10th in EPA/Play, 13th in CPOE and 28th in air yards (6.6).
Prescott only thrives when his defense provides him a comfortable lead - and I don’t believe he’ll get that against Los Angeles.
Also, the last 20 teams to play San Francisco, the following week after doing so those teams are 1-19 straight up!
The Cowboys will suffer another loss on primetime and we will once again witness why Herbert is one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL.
Play: Chargers (+2.5); 1.10 units to win 1.00
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