Falcons @ Bucs
Desmond Ridder is 0-4 when playing away from Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Ridder, also, is a QB that has been sacked 19 times this season, ranks 26th in EPA/Play, has a CPOE (Completion Percentage Over Expected) of -2.3% and a touchdown to interception ratio of 6-6.
And, according to DVOA, Ridder faces a Bucs defense that ranks 10th overall and 11th against the pass.
Plus, this Tampa Bay defense blitzes at a rate of 40.4%, which is the third highest in the league.
The Bucs are +6 in turnover margin this season (10 total takeaways), compared to the Falcons who are at -6 with their turnover margin (10 total giveaways).
This is going to be a long and tough day for this Atlanta offense - as seemingly every week is with Ridder under center.
That’s why Falcons Head Coach Arthur Smith, turns to the ground effort frequently. However, that part of Atlanta’s game may be hindered as well, considering the Bucs rank 3rd against the rush in terms of EPA/Play.
And one final note revolving around Todd Bowles’ defense - they rank 1st in red zone defensive efficiency. They are limiting opponents to scoring a TD in the red zone just 23% of the time. In comparison, Atlanta is allowing opponents to cross into the end zone 44% of the time they enter the red zone.
But what can Tampa Bay do offensively?
Well, Baker Mayfield has had a surprisingly serviceable season thus far:
CPOE (2.5%) | 7-3 TD-INT | 5 Sacks Taken | 91.3 Passer Rtg | 9th EPA/Play
Mayfield faces a Falcons defense that ranks 24th overall, according to DVOA, and 29th vs the pass.
As long as the Buccaneers don’t make mistakes defensively, and allow Ridder to gain confidence and protection, then the home team should have its way with their opponent this Sunday.
I don’t mind the moneyline price of -136 that’s been available; I’ll lay that for a tad more security.
However, if it’s drifting above -145 I’d probably just recommend laying any number under 3.
Play: Bucs ML (-136); 1.36 units to win 1.00
6-point Teaser: Bills (-2.5) / Seahawks (-1.5)
The Bills, while winning last week, are looking to bounce back from another aggravating performance. And they have a solid spot to do so this Sunday against a disgusting New England offense.
The Patriots rank dead last in offensive EPA/Play, 31st in dropback EPA and 31st in rush EPA.
Furthermore, New England averages just 4.5 yards per play (29th), ranks 25th in 3rd down conversion rate (35.2%) and have yet to score over 20 points in a game this season.
On the other side, Buffalo ranks 3rd in both offensive EPA/Play and dropback EPA and then come in at 5th for rush EPA.
The Bills average the second most yards per play in the NFL (6.0), and also rank 2nd in terms of 3rd down conversion rate (49.3%).
Long story short, Buffalo should have no problem in a tease down situation to where you only need them to win by a field goal against this nightmare of a Patriots team.
As for the other leg of this teaser, here’s why I am including Seattle.
The Seahawks rank 1st against the run according to DVOA and they also allow the fewest yards per carry (3.2) in the NFL.
Without James Connor, and any reliable backup option - the Cardinals will struggle to control possession and move the ball consistently.
Arizona has been a feisty team, but they’ve fallen back to reality in pretty much every game after looking tough in the first half. And that’s completely okay for a team like the Cardinals, given the situation they are in and the expectations we had set for them coming into the year.
As for their opponent coming off of their loss last week - Seattle will be feigning to get back in the W column.
The Seahawks rank 9th in terms of offensive EPA/Play and the Cardinals rank 21st.
Plus, even if Geno Smith is struggling a tad bit throughout the air - Pete Carroll can hang his hat on knowing that they can establish the ground attack.
Kenneth Walker has been a beast (4.2 YPC, 69 RYPG) and will go against an Arizona run defense that comes in at 29th, per DVOA rankings, and allows 4.5 YPC.
Seattle will find their groove and improve to 4-2 on the year.
Play: 6-point Teaser: Bills (-2.5) / Seahawks (-1.5); 1.20 Units to win 1.00
Raiders @ Bears
Ahh yes, here is silly ole Danny betting a Bears game yet again. Am I crazy? Perhaps. But what may be crazier is the fact that either Brian Hoyer or Aidan O’Connell may be laying points on the road this season.
Chicago is very poor themselves, and Tyson Bagent will be the starting QB. But if there are positives to takeaway from Bagent, it would be that he still presents a mobile threat and did a good job at getting the ball out quicker.
That has been a detriment to Justin Fields’ game this year - holding onto the ball for too long. Granted, we have an incredibly limited sample size with Bagent, but, still, I think he can manage to move the ball down the field often enough against a Raiders defense that ranks 26th in pass success rate.
Also, even if the Bears don’t want to trust Bagent that much, they can hone in on the run game. D’Onta Foreman has proven himself to be a worthy back (last week vs MIN: 15-65, 4.3 YPC) and he’ll get to run against a Las Vegas defense that is 30th in rush success rate.
*Success rate: An advanced metric in football that measures efficiency, but with the important context of down and distance considered.*
The Raiders may also want to capitalize on their ground efforts considering they won’t have their starting QB in the mix. However, despite how egregious this Chicago defense has been, where they do make an impact is against the run.
The Bears are limiting opponents to just 3.5 yards per rush attempt, which ranks 4th lowest in the NFL.
Las Vegas is allowing opposing tailbacks to average 4.3 yards per carry.
Aside from the statistical viewpoints of this matchup, let me just pour my two cents into what I think will happen from a Bears fan perspective.
There has been, and there will continue to be, a lot of controversy surrounding Fields, Getsy’s offense, the future of the QB situation, etc.
How classic would it be for Bagent to go out there and win on Sunday?
You know how much of a spark that would create in the media - in local talk radio? I mean - my goodness - the town would go into a frenzy for a week with all of their hot takes saying “Bagent should start over Fields; he understands Getsty’s offense better!”
It’s just one of those things where you can’t explain why it could happen - you just know it will. The articles will be ridiculous, Twitter will go bonkers and then if Bagent starts the subsequent week, he will look mediocre as hell against the Chargers and the football world will return to normal.
Regardless, I do think it’s tough to justify laying points with lackluster QB talent on the road - and with a coach in Josh McDaniels, who is almost as boneheaded as Chicago's staff.
So I’m not going to take the standard points they are giving us with the Bears, but, instead, I will put them in a teaser with the Seahawks.
Yes, I’m using the Seahawks in two different teasers. Let’s hope the boys pull through.
Play: 6-point Teaser: Bears (+8.5) / Seahawks (-1.5); 1.20 units to win 1.00
PLAY’S I’M CONSIDERING & MAY ADD LATER:
Ravens ML
Eagles ML
*Will update if anything ends up being wagered on these games or any others*
Current Plays:
Bucs ML (-136) vs Falcons
6-pt Teaser: Bills (-2.5) / Seahawks (-1.5)
6-pt Teaser: Bears (+8.5) / Seahawks (-1.5)
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