Tampa Bay @ Montreal
The Lightning are coming off yet another overtime loss, which marks their 11th in a row.
They’ll have a quick turnaround tonight when they head to Montreal to face the Canadiens.
Tampa opened as high as -160 at several shops, with the home dog originating at +140. There has been significant support for the Canadiens as they are now as low as +120 dogs.
Considering they played last night, it seems that the Lightning will be forced to go with Matt Tomkins between the pipes for this upcoming matchup.
Tomkins is still searching for his first win this season. He is 0-2-0, has a 3.61 GAA (goals against average) and a save percentage of 89%. Plus, his GSAx (goals saved above expected) is listed at -1.22.
As for Montreal, they are coming into this spot with a more favorable goalie situation.
Jake Allen is projected to tend the net and this season he is 3-1-1, has a 2.72 GAA, 93% SV and a GSAx of 6.84.
Furthermore, the Canadiens are 18th in xGF% (expected goals for percentage), whereas the Lightning rank 26th.
Even though I missed the best number on the home dog, I still believe them to be an attractive wager if you can bet them anywhere over +120.
And in Illinois, BetRivers still has them listed at +128.
Play: Canadiens ML (+128); 1.00 unit to win 1.28
Buffalo @ Carolina
The total for this game has seen some affection toward the over. We’ve seen the total of 6.5 open with juice of -115 and go as high as -125. However, there are still some -120s available and that’s what I will be playing in this spot.
Despite Antti Raanta, the Hurricanes netminder, being 3-1-1, he is displaying some concerning numbers.
Raanta is 54th in GSAx (-1.55), according to evolving-hockey.com.
Plus, he has a GAA of 3.03 and a save percentage of 87%.
The Sabres come into this spot ranking 6th in terms of GF/60 (goals for per 60 minutes) averaging 3.12. And, Buffalo - on the road, has gone over the total of 6.5 in 4/5 games.
Also, Buffalo’s goaltender, Devon Levi, should provide opportunities for the home team to find scoring as well.
Levi ranks 52nd in GSAx (-1.02), has a 3.41 GAA and a save percentage of 88.6%.
The Hurricanes currently have the highest CF/60 (corsi for per 60 minutes) in the NHL.
Corsi measures all types of shot attempts such as goals, saves, blocked shots and missed shots.
Carolina is getting plenty of looks - let’s just hope they capitalize on them tonight.
Play: CAR/BUF Over 6.5 (-120); Risk 1.20 units to win 1.00
*Available at BetMGM*
Seattle @ Arizona
Okay, we’re going opposite of our last pick. Down in the desert, I’m hoping for a minimal amount of goals scored.
The Kraken have been severely disappointing on the offensive side. They are averaging just 1.86 GF/60. Defensively they are sound and come into this game at 2.35 GA/60.
Their opposition, offensively, stacks up at 2.78 GF/60 and defensively is allowing 2.17 goals per 60 minutes.
Both projected goaltenders have had strong numbers thus far.
For Seattle, Philipp Grubauer is expected to start and despite being 2-5, he has a save percentage of 90% and a GSAx of 2.21.
Connor Ingram, the 26-year-old, looks to get the nod for the Coyotes. Ingram is 3-1, has a 2.39 GAA, a 92% SV and a GSAx metric of 0.81.
I’m expecting this to be a sloppier, slower type of matchup and hoping we can take advantage of that by betting the under.
Play: SEA/ARI Under 6.5 (-122); Risk 1.22 units to win 1.00 *Available at BR*
New Jersey @ Colorado
It appears to be tough sledding ahead for the Devils, as they will be without their top player, Jack Hughes. Hughes suffered a shoulder injury this past Friday, against St. Louis, and is considered week-to-week.
We’ve seen considerable line movement in favor of the home team for this matchup. The Avalanche opened around -165 and are now seen as high as -190.
In numerous statistical categories, Colorado has been the better team.
The Avalanche are 3rd in xGF% and the Devils are 11th.
Colorado's xGF/60 is at 2.97 and their xGA/60 is at 2.15. New Jersey comes in at 3.01 xGF/60 and 2.52 xGA/60.
Looking at the potential goalie matchup for this evening - the home team gets the nod there as well.
Alexandar Georgiev is 6-3-1, has a 2.91 GAA, a 90% SV, and a GSAx of -0.5.
For the Devils, Vitek Vanecek is the projected starter. Vanecek, this season, has a 6-2 record, although a higher GAA of 3.05 and a concerning GSAx metric, which is listed at -2.2.
It makes sense as to why Colorado is receiving the betting attention throughout the market. It’s a shame I didn’t get down on this number immediately, but I still see them as worthwhile wager if you can get them -175 or below. And, currently, Circa has that available.
Play: Avalanche ML (-173); Risk 1.73 units to win 1.00
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