Colorado will head into Boston having won their last four out of five contests, however, it may be a stretch to assume their success continues. I say that because despite winning their last four, the Avalanche are also about to play their fourth straight road game in a span of six days. This squad may be a tad weary at this point.
As for the Bruins, well, they haven’t played since Monday. In that spot, they defeated the Devils, 3-0, at home.
This may be a bit of a revenge spot for Boston as well. These teams last met on January 8th - in Colorado - and the Bruins fell short 4-3 in a shootout. Jeremy Swayman stopped 33 of 36 shots, while Alexandar Georgiev only had to see 26 shots and prevented 23 of them.
If Boston’s defense can play better, which they have at home (+21 goal differential at home compared to +8 on the road), then they should have the advantage in this setting.
Swayman has been the better goalie of the two. He ranks 9th in goals saved above expected (GSAx), has a 2.38 goals against average and a save percentage of 92.2%. Plus, he’s performed much better on home ice: 7-2-1, 2.00 GA/G, 93.2% SV.
As for Georgiev, he ranks 54th in GSAx, has a GA/G of 2.92 and a SV% of 89.7%. On the road, those numbers weaken: 10-7-2, 3.11 GA/G, 89.5% SV.
These teams are very close in terms of expected goals for percentage - Boston (51.48) and Colorado (51.62), so there’s not too much of an edge either way in that regard. But, again, the advantage in my estimation resides in the goaltending, revenge factor and home ice. So that’s why I’ll be backing the chalk in this spot. And it appears the market is doing the same, considering we’ve seen the Bruins move from -138 favorites to as high as -150.
Play: Bruins ML (-142); risk 1.42 units to win 1.00
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