Hello, everybody! Hope you had an enjoyable and profitable weekend. We ended down a tad with our NFL action (1-1, -0.15 units) and are looking to bounce back this evening. Last week I dished out a play on the ice for the first time in quite a while and we were able to cash the Bruins moneyline over the Avalanche. I'm looking to get back into the groove of the NHL a bit more now that the NFL season is dwindling and I’ve got three plays for tonight's slate:
Jets @ Bruins
Winnipeg has been on a heater as of late, winning their last four out of five games, but will surely be put to the test against an equally surging team in Boston, who has been victorious in their last four-in-a-row.
These teams met back on December 22nd, in Winnipeg, and the Jets dominated the game winning 5-1. Bruins Goaltender Jeremy Swayman stopped 28/33 shots; and opposing him was Connor Hellebuyck who saved 24/25.
Hellebuyck has been the best goalie in the NHL thus far. He’s 23-7-3, has a 2.15 goals against average and a save percentage of 92.7%. Plus, he ranks first in goals saved above expected (26.28).
On the road his numbers are still incredibly potent: 12-2-1, 1.99 GAA, 93% SV.
An issue that may present itself in a high-powered matchup such as this one is the Jets missing their Center Mark Schiefele. Schiefele has missed the past several games and, despite Winnipeg still figuring out how to win, his absence has been felt. Without Schiefele available for Hellebuyck’s past three starts, the Jets have allowed 36 shots on goal per game. On average Winnipeg allows under 28 SOG per 60 minutes this season.
So factor that in, along with understanding that the Bruins average 31 shots on goal per game, even more on home ice (32.2), and that this is a revenge spot - then we can probably forecast an aggressive offensive outing from the favorites tonight.
At ESPNBET, Hellebuyck’s saves prop was listed at 26.5 with -130 juice to the over, but has since altered to 27.5 with +105 being the price attributed in that direction.
Hellebuyck has been an absolute menace between the pipes this year and faces a tough battle this evening. Let’s just hope his opponent keeps their foot on the pedal and seeks to take advantage of the missing Schiefele.
Play: Connor Hellebuyck Over 27.5 Saves (+105); Risk 1.00 unit to win 1.05
Panthers @ Predators
Despite losing their last four games, Florida has received a lot of love in the market for this matchup, moving from -113 favorites to as high as -130.
Oddly enough, in those past four defeats, the Panthers have outshot each of their opponents (138-103 total). Florida, who had been a top power-play unit this season, has struggled in that department as of late. They allowed the Wild, on Friday, to execute five power-play goals on six attempts.
Plus, the Panthers will still be missing their Center Alexsander Barkov. So why do we see Florida receiving the love?
Well, for starters, it appears that Anthony Stolarz will be tending the net for them. And this season Stolarz has accumulated a 6-4-2 record, a 2.22 GAA and a save percentage of 91.2%. Away from home ice he is 4-2-1, has a 1.91 GAA and a save percentage of 92.5%. He ranks 31st in GSAx.
The projected goaltender for the Predators is Juuse Saros. Saros has had a bit of a down year, relatively speaking: 18-17-1, 2.97 GAA, 90.2% SV. At home he is 12-10-0, has a 3.07 GAA and a save percentage of 89.6%. Saros ranks 33rd in GSAx.
So perhaps the Panthers have an ever so slight advantage in the goaltending. But, more so, it resides with their team overall. I already mentioned how Florida has been outshooting their opponents, yet still falling short. So the expectation should be that at some point positive regression is due. And not just because of the last four games, but because of what we’ve witnessed with them all year.
The Panthers rank 2nd in expected goals for percentage; the Predators rank 14th.
I believe we will see improvement from this Florida squad and a good enough effort to put them back in the winning column.
Play: Panthers Moneyline (-120); Risk 1.20 units to win 1.00
(BetMGM had the best price available in the state of Illinois)
Penguins @ Coyotes
Can Pittsburgh finally find some consistency? This team has been back and forth for a while and are coming off a loss against a banged-up Golden Knights team (3-2) this past Saturday.
Tonight, they face a squad they have already beaten - the Coyotes. On December 12th, at home, the Penguins overcame them 4-2. In that game, Tristan Jarry stopped 19/21 shot attempts. On the other side, Connor Ingram was getting pelted with the puck left and right as he allowed just three goals on 42 shots.
Despite falling short, the positive takeaway in that game was how strongly Ingram stood his ground. And, really, that’s been the story with him all season.
Ingram is 16-9-1 this year, he has a 2.49 GAA, a save percentage of 92%, along with five shutouts. He has been good enough to sit 3rd in GSAx rankings among goaltenders.
The issue from time to time has been the inability from the rest of his team to provide support. Arizona comes into this game ranking 20th in xGF%.
The Coyotes will likely face Goaltender Tristan Jarry, once again. Jarry’s record reflects the volatility of his team. He is 12-13-4, has a 2.50 GAA and has saved 91.5% of the shots he’s seen. Jarry has racked up five shutouts and has done fairly well on the road: 6-7-2, 2.59 GAA, 91% SV. He ranks 5th in GSAx.
The nice thing for Jarry is that every now and then he will get support from his teammates as the Penguins are 5th in xGF% this season. The issue, as I alluded to, is just how it hasn’t been occurring consecutively as of late.
Despite that, I do believe this is a good setup for the road team. Pittsburgh has just as good of a goaltender in Jarry, but an even better supporting cast. They should be upset from their recent performance(s) and feel motivated to take advantage of an inferior group.
Play: Penguins Moneyline (-145); Risk 1.45 units to win 1.00
Recap:
Connor Hellebuyck Over 27.5 Saves (+105)
Panthers ML (-120)
Penguins ML (-145)
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