Wednesday Recap:
Last night proved to be another fun one for us as we ended with our second sweep of the week!
This time the result was 3-0 (+3.10):
Mariners ML (-115) @ Rays Win
Orioles -1.5 (+110) vs Guardians Win
ARI/MIN Over 9 (-110) Win
Tonight's slate offers slim pickings, so instead of doing my usual full breakdown I'll be sharing just one play that I like.
Burke’s Bet
Rangers @ Orioles
Baltimore snapped out of their funk Wednesday night after defeating Cleveland 4-2.
That ended a five-game losing streak for the Orioles and prevented a potential three-game series sweep at the hands of the Guardians.
Speaking of sweeps, Texas just dropped three consecutive spots in Milwaukee. And now they travel to Baltimore to face the hottest offense in baseball over the course of the past month.
As I mentioned yesterday, over the past 30 days against right-handed pitching, the Orioles lead the league in wRC+ (147), ISO (.245) and OPS (.875).
Conversely, in that same time frame, their upcoming opponent sits dead last in those respective categories. The Rangers have a 62 wRC+, a .104 ISO and a .581 OPS against RHP.
Those numbers are concerning enough, but having to face a pitcher like Corbin Burnes makes the situation even more worrisome.
Burnes brings his 2.35 ERA, 2.78 xERA and 3.39 xFIP to the mound for the home team.
He’s been tremendous at limiting strong contact with a 30.4% hard hit rate, a 6.5% barrel rate, a .266 xwOBA and a .132 xISO.
Opposing him will be fellow right-hander Jon Gray.
Gray’s ERA suggests he can go toe-to-toe with Burnes, but the reality is quite different.
Despite his 3.03 ERA, his expected earned run average resides at 4.31 and his xFIP is at 3.68.
More importantly, he’s allowing powerful contact fairly consistently with a 43.4% hard hit rate, a 9% barrel rate and a .327 xwOBA.
Gray is coming off a six-inning shutout performance against Kansas City; it feels like regression is inevitable for tonight’s affair.
Let’s look for the Orioles to keep momentum going after last night’s victory.
Play: Orioles -1.5 (+104); Risk 1.00 unit to win 1.04
Comments