We're coming off another solid outing yesterday with a couple of winners:
D'Backs ML (-137) vs Reds; +1.00 units
Celtics -2.5 series spread (-170); +2.00 units
Tonight's affair between Denver and Minnesota will dictate the outcome of our remaining series prop bets:
DEN/MIN Finish in 6 (+220); Risk 2.00 to win 4.40
DEN/MIN Finish in 7 (+250); Risk 2.00 to win 5.00
Aside from that I've only got one play and it's a player prop.
Let's dive in...
Mike Conley Jr.
The veteran guard was absent in Game 5 due to a calf strain. However, it does appear that he is expected to play this evening in Game 6.
The presence of Conley will loom large for this T'Wolves offense and, most importantly, will clear up space for their primary scoring threats.
Conley has done an incredible job facilitating the ball during this series and the playoffs as a whole.
He's averaging 7.8 assists per game in this second-round matchup versus the Nuggets, and 7.0 apg overall this postseason.
According to nba.com, his potential assists metric lists him at 9.8 throughout this series. He leads his team in that regard.
His assists prop was set at 5.5 earlier today and that's a mark he's gone over in 7/8 games this postseason.
I was able to snag (and gave out on my appearance on the show "Sports by the Book" this
morning) the 5.5 at the price of -135.
Since then, several books have either increased the vig on the over 5.5, or listed it at 6.5 with plus money toward the over.
Currently FanDuel has the best listing; they have Conley's assists at 5.5 (-144). I wouldn't recommend a play at any price higher than that.
Let's hope the southpaw is able to dish out some quality dimes tonight.
Play: Mike Conley Jr. Over 5.5 Assists (-135); Risk 1.00 unit to win .74
NBA Record: 53-42-1 (+6.13)
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