Here is a recap of the plays I've made for today's slate of games:
(I may add a play for the Sunday Night Football game revolving around the total...if I do I'll be sure to tweet about it - @dannyburke5)
Check out which player prop I'm wagering on for the upcoming matchup between New Orleans and Carolina:
(I will be risking 2.00 units to win 1.64)
6-Point Teaser - Bucs / Ravens
Bucs @ Falcons
Back in week 7 these teams squared off in Tampa, and the Falcons came out on top 16-13. That was without Bijan Robinson for the majority of the game, who took just one snap for a three-yard carry and then exited the contest due to headaches.
Robinson is expected to be 100% for this game, the Bucs already lost to them once and the game is being played in Atlanta this time…so why aren’t the Falcons laying more than -1.5?
Well, Tampa Bay’s offense has been a tad more formidable than Atlanta’s. The Bucs come in at 16th in EPA/Play and 13th in drop back EPA. The Falcons rank 25th and 23rd in those categories, respectively.
Defensively, Atlanta gets the nod of approval. They are 4th in defensive success rate and 7th in defensive EPA/Play. Tampa sits at 27th and 21st in those categories, respectively.
Interestingly enough, though, DVOA ranks these defenses a bit differently. In terms of DVOA overall defense the Bucs come in at 14th and the Falcons 25th.
In terms of red zone defense - both teams are rock solid. Atlanta has the league’s best RZ defense (37%) and Tampa Bay is listed as the 4th best (40%). In terms of red zone offense, both groups are at about 50%.
All of these different metrics are peculiar to see and make your head spin when trying to decipher which team is the right side. My initial inklings led me toward backing Baker Mayfield and company. They may not have as many dominant weapons offensively, but they have enough. And, more importantly, they actually have a QB that utilizes those weapons and can deliver the pigskin to them, unlike Ridder with his crew.
Nevertheless, I do feel confident in assuming that this matchup won’t be a blowout either way. I mean, heck, this total is only at 39, so points are expected to come at a premium. And that, along with the familiarity of these teams being division foes and this being the second meeting between these squads this season, leads me to believe that we will witness another close encounter.
So that’s why I chose to implement the Bucs as a teaser leg. On Wednesday I moved them from +2.5 to +8.5. I realize the line has since altered, and the best number is now Tampa at +1.5, so I would still recommend teasing them up six points to get them to +7.5.
Let’s talk about the team I’m pairing them with…
Rams @ Ravens
Sean McVay’s team will head to Baltimore on a three-game win streak. Unfortunately, and realistically, it will come to an end this Sunday.
The Rams will face a Ravens defense that ranks 1st in DVOA overall defense, 2nd in EPA/Play, 3rd in success rate. Also, Baltimore allows the fewest yards per completion (7.6) and they rank 3rd in both red zone defensive efficiency (37.5%) and red zone offensive efficiency (64.6%).
Los Angeles is about middle of the pack in terms of DVOA, EPA and success rate categories, defensively speaking. Yes, they are a competitive bunch that features some great weapons, but they can’t compete with the likes of the Ravens.
It’s evident that teams outside of the AFC North struggle against Lamar Jackson. They aren’t used to his dual threat abilities and don’t know how to counter it efficiently. The only loss that Baltimore has had outside of the division was a 22-19 loss vs the Colts in overtime in week 3. Their other two losses came against their division rivals Pittsburgh (17-10) and Cleveland (33-31).
Furthermore, the weather in this game is going to feature hefty wind and rain - that should be a benefit to a team that can run a spread offense, as opposed to a pass-heavy team.
The Ravens should take care of business off of their bye-week and not only have a solid chance to cover their spread of -7, but, more importantly, cover their spot of -1 once we tease them down six points.
Play: 6-Point Teaser - Bucs (+8.5) / Ravens (-1); risk 1.20 units to win 1.00
Recap:
Alvin Kamara Anytime TD (-122)
6-Point Teaser - Bucs (+8.5) / Ravens (-1); risk 1.20 units to win 1.00
NFL Record: 27-22-1 (+2.49)
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