Dorian Finney-Smith
Over the past month, my favorite team to make bets surrounding has been the Hornets. However, in their matchup tonight, I will be wagering on someone involved with the opposition.
Dorian Finney-Smith has had a (relatively) hot hand this month. In four games played he’s averaged 13.3 points on 60% shooting.
DFS is a player who takes a majority of his shots from beyond the arc (64%). Charlotte, defensively, is allowing opponents to take over 37% of their shots from there (21st) and make 38.6% (27th).
His next favorite spot to attack from comes at the rim; and from there he is launching 28% of his looks. The Hornets rank 27th in both volume of attempts and makes allowed at the rim.
DFS has seen Charlotte twice this season. Here’s how he fared:
10/30 @ CHA: 7-12 FG, 4-9 3pt, 19 points
11/30 vs CHA: 5-7 FG, 4-6 3pt, 14 points
His points prop for this evening is listed at 8.5, with -122 juice to the over. He’s gone over this mark in not only 3/4 games this month, but 28/54 games this season (52%). Let’s be honest, his season numbers getting over 8.5 doesn’t quite move the needle, but it is on the positive side and it’s important to note that in this particular matchup there should be an advantage for him.
Let’s hope he keeps knocking down shots against this Hornets crew.
Play: Dorian Finney-Smith Over 8.5 Points (-122); Risk 1.00 unit to win .82
Jusuf Nurkic
Our other player prop will take place on the West Coast, in what should be the best game of the night.
The Celtics are coming to the desert and bringing with them a stellar defense and, perhaps, more motivation than usual after falling victim to the reigning champion Denver Nuggets the other night. And, the game prior to that - they fell short against the banged-up Cavaliers.
Nevertheless, speaking of that Boston defense - let’s dig into that. The Celtics are very formidable on the defensive front pretty much everywhere. But, where they excel specifically is at the rim. And surrounding that area, Boston ranks 3rd in both attempts allowed (29.3%) and makes allowed (62.3%).
Naturally, that brought me to a player on the Suns’ roster who frequents that spot, and that individual would be the aforementioned Jusuf Nurkic.
Nurkic takes 63% of his shots at the rim. And what’s unusual about that, as a big, is that he’s not actually connecting on those looks as often as most centers are. He’s making just 60% of them, which puts him in the 23rd percentile of all “Bigs.”
His points prop is listed at 10.5, and the least amount of juice I could find on the under was -122. He has stayed under this mark in 54% of games this season and, most recently, in 3/4 games this month.
Let’s look for the lack of offense to continue from the seven-footer.
Play: Jusuf Nurkic Under 10.5 Points (-122); Risk 1.22 units to win 1.00
NBA Record: 28-17 (+5.28)
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