Jalen Suggs - 10.5 Points
Suggs and the Orlando Magic are coming off a thrilling victory last night in Detroit, as they defeated the Pistons 112-109 thanks to a Paolo Banchero game-winning shot.
It’s a quick turnaround for them, though, as they immediately have to head to Atlanta to play the Hawks for the fourth time this season.
I’m sure Suggs embraces this trip and is in fact looking forward to it based on how he’s performed against this upcoming opponent.
Suggs has seen the Hawks three times this year and has averaged 17.7 points per game on over 63% shooting.
1/17 @ ATL: 16 points
1/7 vs ATL: 16 points
11/9 vs ATL: 21 points
Atlanta features one of the worst defenses in the NBA. They rank 30th in defensive effective field goal percentage and 27th in defensive points per 100 possessions allowed.
In particular, the Hawks struggle at defending from beyond the perimeter as they allow opponents to knock down 39% of their three-point attempts (26th). Plus, at the rim is where their opponents are seeing most of their shot attempts taken (37.3%, 28th), and they are connecting on about 68% of them (23rd).
Suggs is taking 50% of his shots from deep and 27% at the rim. He’s averaging 3.7 three-point field goals made on 5.0 attempts against Atlanta and, in general, going 6.3-10.0 from the floor.
It’s apparent that Suggs has thrived in this specific matchup and I’m expecting him to keep that going.
Play: Jalen Suggs Over 10.5 Points (-109); Risk 1.09 units to win 1.00
Nikola Jokic - 26.5 Points
Speaking of situations in which players are excited for their upcoming matchup - this, too, has the makings to be just that.
Jokic has gone against Golden State three different times this season and in that span he has averaged 31.7 ppg.
The Warriors are horrid from midrange. They not only allow opponents to take the most shot attempts from their in the league (37.3%), but also make the most from that territory (47.5%).
Furthermore, Steve Kerr’s crew struggles at the rim and they are letting the opposition make over 67% of their looks from there (21st).
The big man, Jokic, is taking 48% of his shots from midrange and 37% at the rim. He’s making 58% from mid and 71% near the bucket. It’s clear why this matchup has proven to be beneficial for the former MVP.
Now, granted, in the three games they’ve face one another, Draymond Green has been absent. Certainly Green is outmatched when facing Jokic, but we all understand the type of havoc the Warriors veteran can wreak when on the floor.
So, yes, I still do believe this is a good setup for Jokic, but because of Green’s presence - that is going to limit to amount I look to wager on this play.
Play: Nikola Jokic Over 26.5 Points (-117); Risk .75 units to win .64
Hornets (+3) @ Trailblazers
For some reason I keep finding excuses to make bets that surround this Charlotte team. As I’ve mentioned in my past two NBA betting articles, those reasons are mainly due to their newest acquisitions.
Since the arrival of Tre Mann, Grant Williams and Seth Curry, the Hornets have gone 4-1 straight up and have limited opponents to 102.2 ppg. This is an insane improvement for a team that has been at the very bottom of the barrel in defensive rankings. Heck, they are still listed at 29th in defensive eFG% (58%) and 28th in defensive Pts/Poss (121) at cleaningtheglass.com.
The lone game they lost in this span was their most recent outing, which was at Golden State. They held the Warriors to just 97 points, but did end up losing by 13. Still, it's impressive to limit Steph Curry and company like that on the road.
This evening, Charlotte remains on the West Coast, but will enter into a much more favorable setting.
They are taking on the Trail Blazers, which is a team that is not only flooded with injuries, but also in lack of success. Portland ranks 30th in offensive eFG% (50.7%) and 29th in offensive Pts/Poss (109.4). Defensively, this is a unit that is 27th in eFG% (57%) and 24th in Pts/Poss (119.6).
There is not really any one spot in which the Blazers consistently thrive in. And with the Hornets, well, this team has played inspired as of late. Despite them not having much to play for on paper, if you watch this team you can clearly see that the vibe and intensity around this young group has you thinking differently.
It’s a new-look squad with much to prove. And tonight is a very accommodating spot to do just that against a Portland team that, on paper, is just as bad, but - evidently - with less incentive.
I’ll be taking the points in this showdown.
Play: Hornets +3 (-110) @ Trail Blazers; Risk 1.10 unit to win 1.00
NBA Record: 14-6 (+6.48)
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