In case you missed it, yesterday, I released this video that included my thoughts on tonight's game, along with the Monday Night Football game.
Listen below to hear my thoughts:
After I posted that, about an hour later the decision to start Bagent was announced. Like I mentioned in the video - in this specific matchup against a poor team such as the Panthers - it does not matter if it's Bagent or Fields. The Bears' philosophy will be to run the ball. And Carolina has one of the worst run defenses in the NFL.
Now, here's the thing. Considering the lines altered after the QB news was announced, you can actually get a better, cheaper price on Chicago's moneyline.
Funny enough, as I was typing this, the limits increased at several respected sportsbooks. Meaning, the sharper bettors could wager more on tonight's game. I was going to say how I wouldn't mind just laying -155 on the Bears ML, without the addition of the other team in the parlay, but after those limits got increased I saw some biiiiiig movement in favor of the home team. Chicago is now back up to a -170 favorite or above. So, perhaps pairing them with the Bills is still the right way to approach it after all; so you can avoid laying the hefty chalk.
Also, I'm adding another play in this game. I was, along with many others, under the impression that Khalil Herbert would be playing in this game. However, it turns out that the Bears will not activate him off of the IR in time.
Bummer? Yes. Opportunity presented? You betcha.
I've already expressed in the video above how awful Carolina is against the run, but - what I didn't say is that the Panthers are allowing the most rushing touchdowns in the NFL this season at 1.8 per game.
Since Herbert went out, D'Onta Foreman has solidified himself as the top back over Rookie Roschon Johnson. Foreman leads the team in red zone snaps and last game had four compared to Johnson's goose egg.
You can find the Foreman to score a touchdown anytime bet at +120 at Caesars. I'd play it at any price of +100 or better.
Plays:
- Parlay - Bears ML / Bills ML (-108); Risk 1.08 units to win 1.00
- D'Onta Foreman Anytime TD Score (+120); Risk 2.00 units to win 2.4 units
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