Happy Monday, everyone! I hope you enjoyed your weekend and were able to profit off of the thrilling finish at the PGA Championship, or throughout one of series clinching contests in the NBA.
We’ve got to give a quick shoutout to Brady Kannon, who was kind enough to join the podcast last week to help preview the Major Championship. Brady gave out Xander Schauffele (and the runner-up Bryson DeChambeau) and had himself a solid tourney. Hopefully some of you were able to tune in and cash as well.
Also, in case you missed it, we ended our second-round of NBA series prop bets quite nicely:
We are currently 6-3 and up over 11 units on our NBA postseason series wagers.
I’m looking forward to doing a preview of the conference finals and will hopefully have that posted within the next 24 hours.
As for today, I have just one play on the diamond.
Let’s get into it….
Angels @ Astros -1.5 (+106)
Houston has seemingly found their stride as they are winners in seven out of their last eight games.
Tonight we will see dueling southpaws as Framber Valdez gets the nod for the Astros and Reid Detmers will receive the same from the Angels.
Detmers is someone who I’ve traditionally been eager to fade, and over his last five games you can see why. He has allowed 26 earned runs throughout that span.
Granted, despite his ERA being listed at 5.19 - his xFIP is at 3.67.
In the long run, sure, that may be promising, however, this Houston club is currently thriving and ranks 4th in weighted runs created plus vs LHP this season (123).
Furthermore, Detmers is 1-3 with a 6.42 ERA in over seven career starts against the Astros. Last season he went 0-2 with a 10.13 ERA in three starts versus them.
Conversely, Valdez has been rock solid this year and also against his upcoming opponent.
This season Valdez posts a 2.95 ERA and an xFIP of 3.06. His ground ball rate is 66%, which is incredibly impressive.
In over 18 career appearances (14 starts), Valdez is 9-4 with a 3.68 ERA against the Angels. In three starts last season he went 2-0 with a 2.53 ERA versus Los Angeles.
Offensively speaking, the Angels have actually done well vs lefties as they come into tonight ranking 8th in wRC+ (114) against them.
I am willing to put enough faith into Valdez, though, along with these Astros’ bats to do enough to get the job done.
Plus, the Los Angeles Angels feature the league’s second-highest bullpen ERA (5.03). So if Houston can’t do damage against Detmers then they’ll still have a weak relief staff to take advantage of.
Play: Astros -1.5 (+106); Risk 1.00 unit to win 1.06
MLB record: 34-29-1 (+1.16)
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