The 2024 NBA Playoffs have provided moments that will be etched into history - and it’s only the 1st round. Simultaneously, this beginning round of postseason action has also dealt us some of the most boring games in recent memory. Several of those contests have been decided by halftime…I’m looking at you Cleveland / Orlando.
That’s often the nature of the beast, though. And I’m willing to suffer through a Cavs / Magic blowout for a pair of Jamal Murray game winners, or for a vintage James Harden fourth quarter performance that prevents blowing a lead of 30-plus points, or for the Knicks to execute one of the most inconceivable comebacks when trailing by five points with 47 seconds left, only to end up winning by three.
Not every game is going to be a classic and not every matchup is going to produce close affairs.
I bring this up because there have been a lot of people complaining on social media about the lack of “excitement” or “close games” throughout this opening stage.
It's surprising to think that someone who has watched all these games would walk away feeling unsatisfied. I suppose there will always be a group of people who find a negative in something, though.
I’ve thoroughly enjoyed the postseason action thus far and am eager to continue observing and handicapping it going forward.
With that being said, let’s do a brief update on how our series bets are looking, what we can consider for hedging and a prop or two for tonight's slate.
SETTLED:
Minnesota Timberwolves to win series (+116); Risk 2.00 units to win 2.32
The T’Wolves brought out the ole broomstick and swept Kevin Durant, Devin Booker and Bradley Beal off the floor.
Before the series had begun, I was appalled seeing Minnesota as an underdog. The market kept betting up and showing respect to the team down in the desert.
As I mentioned in my NBA series bets episode of “Burke’s Beat,” along with my column for “The Sporting Tribune,” it felt like bettors were being dealt the Kevin Durant tax.
But, we have seen these star-heavy teams falter in the past. Basically every team, aside from the Warriors, has fallen short with KD leading the way. Now, I am by no means placing the blame solely on him; the issue is the lack of depth and production from role players.
I wrote about that in my column previewing this series:
By the end of the fourth game the Timberwolves tallied 106 bench points in comparison to the Suns' 86.
Role players like Nickeil Alexander-Walker stepped up big for the Wolves as he averaged 12.3 points per game. Phoenix suffered the loss of one of their main contributors, outside of the big three, in Grayson Allen.
Though, let’s be realistic - Allen was not going to be the difference in this series.
Minnesota came into this matchup with the league’s top defense, according to cleaningtheglass.com, and they also feature a superstar in the making in Anthony Edwards.
Next up - they’ll get to play in the most anticipated battle of the year versus the reigning champion Denver Nuggets.
The best price to win the series that I’ve seen on the champs is at -190, which is available at Circa Sportsbook, and +180 is being dealt at numerous outlets for the underdogs.
Clippers / Mavericks:
Series to go 6 games (+200); Risk 1.00 unit to win 2.00
Series to go 7 games (+230); Risk 1.00 unit to win 2.30
Clearly this series is still occurring and the result of our wagers is undecided. I put it under the settled section because it is determined that we will win one of these bets and make some profit; it’s just a matter of which one.
After winning Game 1 without Kawhi Leonard, Los Angeles dropped the next two with him in the lineup. Leonard was then announced out for Game 4, the Clippers built a lead of 31 points and tried their best to blow it. Luckily, though, Harden remembered that he could be a star (and the Mavs stopped playing defense and allowed him an open look on nearly every possession down the stretch) and Paul George hit one of the clutchest shots of his career.
The series heads back to La La Land with it knotted up at 2-2. The consensus line appears to be -2.5 in favor of Dallas for Game 5.
I haven’t seen any significant news surrounding Leonard’s status for the upcoming meeting, but if he’s not going to be 100%, which he hasn’t seemed to be, then LA is probably better off without him on the floor.
Never thought I’d be writing those words, but that’s the reality of this current situation.
I’m certainly hoping for the Clippers to win for a couple of reasons…
If they win this game, realistically the Mavericks will bounce back at home in Game 6 and force this series to go seven games, thus giving us a better payout on our bet.
The other reason being that we are still sweating out or NBA Championship exacta bets from a couple months ago:
Boston to beat Denver (13/1)
Boston to beat LA Clippers (14/1)
Los Angeles finding their way into the championship feels like a pipe dream, but it would still be nice to keep the hope alive for a tad longer.
PENDING SERIES BETS:
76ers series spread +2.5 (-122); Risk 2.44 units to win 2.00
This was a wager that I dished out after Game 2. I felt that we were getting a pretty good price on the expectation of Philly being able to edge out two home games.
Well, they won Game 3, but choked in Game 4.
Joel Embiid played some of his worst basketball when it mattered most in that contest, and as of this morning he is listed as “questionable” for tonight’s game with a migraine, which may be symptoms directly correlated to his Bell’s palsy.
The betting market has been volatile for Game 5.
Originally the Knicks opened at -3.5, then moved to as high as -4.5 and are now back down to -3.5. Their ML went as high as -200 at some shops, but can now be viewed as low as -159.
I have lost confidence in this Sixers team. Madison Square Garden is going to be bonkers this evening. Heck, they overtook Wells Fargo Center in Game 4 and made it seem like a home game.
I am looking to limit some of my exposure to Philly with the assumption they don’t extend this series.
Here’s what I’m facing:
76ers +2.5 games (-122); Risk 2.44 units to win 2.00
I am going to hedge with a ML bet on New York:
Knicks ML (-159); Risk 1.59 units to win 1.00
If New York wins I’d lose 1 unit less (-1.44), and if Philadelphia wins I’d profit only +0.41 units.
It is far from an ideal situation, but as I've stated - I feel very uncertain with the Sixers for this game. So I want to limit the damage, but I also want to leave a sliver gap to potentially score a small profit in case they do manage to pull this one out.
Cavaliers series spread -1.5 (+130); Risk 1.00 unit to win 1.30
How classic of this Cavs team to look stellar in the first two games of the series to then go on and drop the following two road games by a combined margin of 61 points.
I knew what I was getting into by betting Cleveland - I made that very apparent in the pod and the column.
Nevertheless, I do believe they will win their game tonight and eventually the series, but - for obvious reasons - I’ve lost faith in their ability to win on the road.
The only way to approach this is to wait and hope the Cavs win tonight and then either let it ride or hedge with a wager of sorts on the Magic prior to the start of Game 6.
Props for Tuesday, April 30th:
Jalen Brunson
We have all come to know and appreciate this left-handed sharpshooter for his scoring. However, where the value may be found for him is within his assists.
Throughout this postseason, Brunson leads his team in potential assists (13.8) per game. He also led their squad during the regular season (12.0).
A potential assist is a pass that leads directly to a possession event (shot, foul, turnover).
During the course of the regular season, Brunson averaged just 6.7 assists per game.
However, during this round his average has ticked up to 9.0 apg.
Game 1 - 7 assists
Game 2 - 6 assists
Game 3 - 13 assists
Game 4 - 10 assists
Ironically, his highest assists were logged in the same games that he scored his most points this series. He dropped 39 points in Game 3 and 47 points in Game 4.
His assists prop is listed at 8.5 across the board. What stands out is how books are dealing the over at a plus price. BetMGM has the best available in the state of Illinois at +115.
Though unachievable, the Sixers will do everything in their power to prevent Brunson’s offensive damage. Sure, they may be able to contain him from time to time, but ultimately he will find a way to score.
But in the various times they do succeed - that will lead to shot opportunities for his teammates and help us get this prop mark to the over. Plus, Brunson is a natural assist man as is - he knows where to seek to quality looks.
Play: Jalen Brunson Over 8.5 Assists (+115); Risk 1.00 unit to win 1.15
Jarrett Allen
In the first two games of the series between Cleveland and Orlando, Allen was a rebounding machine.
He collected 18 boards in Game 1 and 20 in Game 2.
His stats in that specific category shrank significantly in the following two games. In Game 3 Allen had 8 rebounds and then just 9 in Game 4.
Why was there such a big alteration?
Offensive efficiency and minutes logged is where the answer resides.
The Magic shot 32.6% and 36.3% in the first pair of games respectively. Subsequently, they connected on 51.5% and 55.8% from the floor in Games 3 and 4.
Throughout the entirety of the regular season Orlando featured a volatile offense. Now, as they head back to an uncomfortable environment in Cleveland, the expectation should be for them to fall back to reality on the offensive front.
As for his playing time - here's how it's resulted for Allen:
Game 1 - 35 minutes
Game 2 - 39 minutes
Game 3 - 24 minutes
Game 4 - 29 minutes
Those last two games were blowouts so there was no need to keep a starter like Allen in the game.
The big man should see more missed shots and more minutes logged for Game 5, thus leading him to snagging more boards and finding himself over his prop mark in that regard.
Play: Jarrett Allen Over 11.5 Rebounds (-132); Risk 1.32 units to win 1.00
NBA Record: 45-37-1 (+0.67)
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