Hello, everyone and welcome to Tuesday’s edition of “Burke’s Beat.”
We’re coming off a solid outing last night as we hit both of our plays:
NBA - Kyrie Irving Over 5.5 assists (-113) W
MLB - OAK/HOU Over 8.5 (-115) W
Also, I have yet to update/mention this, but we did get home with our series bet revolving around the Pacers, too!
After the first game in their matchup versus the Knicks, I dished out +2.5 (-144) on their series spread, risking 2.88 units to win 2.00. No matter what happens in their meeting tonight and going forward, the bet is already solidified.
The other series prop bet we’re sweating out is the Celtics to cover -2.5 games on their spread (-170). I risked 3.40 units to win 2.00, and need them to win Game 5 to cash that ticket.
They are currently laying -15.5 for that game. Suffice to say, that's quite the ideal scenario, my friends.
Let’s go ahead and move on to the action that I’ve got for this evening….
NBA:
Timberwolves @ Nuggets
Thankfully the reigning champions remembered how to play the sport of basketball. Not only do we have a fascinating series now, but we’re guaranteed to win one of our bets.
These are the pre-series bets I released:
DEN/MIN series to end in 6 games (+220); Risk 2.00 units to win 4.40
DEN/MIN series to end in 7 games (+250); Risk 2.00 units to win 5.00
Aside from those wagers, I've only gotten involved in one bet revolving around a specific game. That was this past Friday, where I released a play on the total going over 204 in Game 3. Despite Minnesota’s inability to score the ball - the bet still hit thanks to the Nuggets.
I’m going back to the well with a bet on the over for tonight’s affair.
205.5 is widely available and I’d snag it sooner rather than later as it appears the market is trending toward 206.
Game 3 ended with a score of 117-90. As I mentioned, Denver finally looked like they team we knew them to be; they finished at 132.5 points per 100 possessions and an effective field goal percentage of 66.4%.
The T’Wolves had just 95 pts/poss and 51.6% on their eFG%.
Subsequently, Game 4 gave us a legitimate look at how both of these offenses should be playing.
The Nuggets ended up at 122.2 pts/poss and 63.6% eFG%, whereas the Timberwolves had 119 pts/poss and an eFG% of 55%.
That game also featured the lowest free throw attempts out of Denver, who had just 15. Now as they head back home, we can assume more whistles will blow in their favor, which will contribute to more points. Plus, Minnesota has allowed six more FTA per game to their opponents during this playoff run in comparison to the regular season.
In Game 1, we also witnessed both teams shoot over 55% in terms of their eFG% and the total points finished at 205. That was with Denver’s offense disappearing in the 4th quarter, too.
The Nuggets have finally figured out a rhythm offensively, thanks to Jamal Murray stepping up and the contributions from guys like Aaron Gordon (17.3 ppg this series) and Michael Porter Jr. (13.5 ppg this series).
Funny enough, though, MPJ is actually producing less than normal on the offensive front. During the regular season he tallied 16.7 ppg, and in their series against the Lakers his average increased to 22.8 ppg.
Nevertheless, with the momentum and home crowd behind them, the Nuggets will be able to do their part offensively.
The T’Wolves will be eager to get off to a strong start. It’s a necessity for them considering how this series has altered. What killed them in Games 3 and 4 is how much of a hole they dug for themselves. They can’t afford to do that in a hostile road environment.
Both teams will be geared up for tonight’s action, and I don’t believe the market has adjusted accordingly. As I mentioned, I viewed Game 4 as a contest that displayed what the tempo and scoring of this showdown should truly look like - and I’m expecting that to persist this evening.
Play: DEN/MIN Total Over 205.5 (-110); Risk 1.10 units to win 1.00
MLB:
Cubs @ Braves
Once again, the Cubs’ hitters fail to provide their starting pitcher with any offensive production during a quality outing.
Shota Imanaga has been the best pitcher in baseball. That much was evident last night against one of the best teams in MLB.
Imanaga went 5.0 innings, allowed 7 hits, 8 strikeouts and no earned runs against the Braves.
Chicago’s lineup managed just 5 hits themselves.
I can’t imagine things getting any easier for them this evening as they’ll face southpaw Chris Sale.
Sale has been nothing short of dominant in his 7 starts this season. He’s got a 2.95 ERA and an xFIP of 2.46. His ground ball rate of balls batted in play is over 49%.
Shockingly, despite their hitting woes the Cubs have actually thrived against lefty pitchers. They rank second in weighted runs created plus versus LHP (138).
Sure, that may seem promising, but this is not any ordinary southpaw. And the only batter in Chicago’s lineup that has a healthy amount of experience against Sale is the veteran catcher Yan Gomes. He’s faced him 28 times throughout his career.
Cody Bellinger has seen him three times and Mike Tauchman twice.
My expectations for run production are at a minimal with this Cubbies offense tonight.
As for the home team - Atlanta will step in the batter’s box to go against the right-hander Jameson Taillon.
Taillon is finally pitching like the player Chicago assumed he’d be when they acquired him last year.
His ERA is 1.13, his xERA is 2.30, but he does have a higher xFIP that is listed at 4.31. Plus, his skill interactive ERA is a tad concerning as well at 4.32.
Surprisingly and impressively, Taillon has yet to surrender more than 1 earned run in all four of his starts.
Though, it appears, and also feels like, he could be due for some regression against this Braves lineup.
Atlanta ranks 8th in wRC+ vs RHP this season (108), and their hitters have plenty more experience with their opposing pitcher unlike the road team.
Also, let’s not neglect how much of a liability Chicago’s bullpen is. Their collective ERA is 4.58, and they do just about everything in their power to make fans sweat every single outing.
The Braves’ relief staff features a much more reliable ERA of 3.42.
This series will not end pretty for the Cubs, and I’m looking to take advantage of that.
Play: Braves -1.5 (+114); Risk 1.00 unit to win 1.14
NBA record: 51-41-1 (+3.13)
MLB record: 32-29-1 (-0.98)
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